Pick of the Day: Linda Noskova vs. Iga Swiatek, Indian Wells

The third round of action at the BNP Paribas Open features some incredible matches. I’m most intrigued by an exciting showdown between Linda Noskova and Iga Swiatek. This is a rematch of their third-round encounter at the Australian Open, where the 19-year-old shocked the world with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over the four-time Grand Slam champion. Noskova raised her level in that match, and Swiatek was an absolute no-show after taking the first set. However, the Pole is 8-1 in the nine matches she has played since that disappointing result. And I think she’ll be out for revenge here.

One of the best ways to beat Swiatek is by speeding her up and not allowing her to get her feet set. Well, that happens pretty naturally at the Australian Open, a tournament is played on some of the fastest hard courts around; that’s part of the reason why Swiatek hasn’t had much success in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Swiatek is a three-time Roland Garros champion and absolutely dominant on clay. These hard courts might not play quite as slow as clay, but they do slow the ball down significantly. That is going to make it really hard for Noskova to make Swiatek uncomfortable.

Getting the ball by Swiatek on these courts will be difficult, and the Pole will also have time to set up and rip her own shots from the baseline. Over the last few weeks, Swiatek has been clinical with her forehand and backhand. I’d also be very surprised if Swiatek doesn’t feast on the Noskova serve. The young Czech is holding at an impressive 78.0% rate this season, however she was at 70.9% over a 41-match sample size at the WTA level. (Of course, it’s entirely possible that Noskova has gotten better with the ball on her racquet. And I definitely believe that she has. But that big of a jump is a little hard to believe in, and the truth is probably somewhere in between.)

Meanwhile, Swiatek is in the conversation as one of the best returners on the planet. She’ll look to quickly pounce on returns and flip the script in her favor.

Swiatek is also a player that makes very sound tactical adjustments. Last year, we saw Coco Gauff beat her in the semifinals in Cincinnati, but Swiatek beat the brakes off her in the two matches they played after (straight-set wins in Beijing and the WTA Finals). We also just saw Swiatek earn a 6-3, 6-0 win over Danielle Collins in her first match in Indian Wells. Collins nearly knocked Swiatek out of the Australian Open, with the two playing a tight three-set match Down Under.

I’m as high on Noskova’s future as anyone, but I think it’ll be hard for her to compete with Swiatek here. So I’m taking the Under on games. I think the Pole gets this done fairly quickly, and the Under offers better value than any of the spread markets.

Pick: Under 19.5 Games (-135)