Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Rolex Paris Masters Tournament Betting Preview

On Monday, October 28, the final 1000-level event of the year, the Rolex Paris Masters, kicks off in Bercy. This field is absolutely loaded, with Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev all playing. The stakes will also be high, as several players can play their way into the Nitto ATP Finals. However, there is one notable absence when looking at the field, as 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic is skipping the event. Djokovic has won this tournament seven times, but it seems like the Serbian will be spending the next couple of months preparing for the 2025 Australian Open.

But this will still be a fun tournament without him, and we’re looking forward to handicapping the action. Keep reading for some valuable Rolex Paris Masters betting tips, as well as some of our picks to win.

Recent Rolex Paris Masters Champions

2019: Novak Djokovic
2020: Daniil Medvedev
2021: Novak Djokovic
2022: Holger Rune
2023: Novak Djokovic

Rolex Paris Masters Betting Odds

Carlos Alcaraz +210
Jannik Sinner +220
Daniil Medvedev 10-1
Alexander Zverev 13-1
Taylor Fritz 31-1
Grigor Dimitrov 34-1
Andrey Rublev 42-1
Holger Rune 42-1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 50-1
Casper Ruud 50-1

(For the rest of the odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook)

Rolex Paris Masters Court Conditions

This is an indoor hard-court tournament, and these tend to play pretty fast. The ITF Court Pace Rating has this event as a Category 3, which is a medium speed. That’s the same rating as you’ll get at the Cincinnati Masters, the Rogers Cup, the Shanghai Masters and the ATP Finals.

But as indoor hard courts go, this is a little slower than you’d expect. Tennis Abstract has the Surface Speed as a 1.08, which uses ace rate to determine how fast each tournament plays. The 1.08 mark means that servers hit 8 percent more aces here than they do on a tour-average surface. That’s nothing to write home about.

Rolex Paris Masters Players To Watch

Holger Rune (42-1): Rune is in a really tough portion of the draw: he’ll face a rock-solid opponent in Matteo Arnaldi right awat, and he’ll likely see Jannik Sinner in the round of 16. But Rune is a player to keep an eye on whenever he’s playing in an indoor hard-court event. These conditions bring out the very best in him.

In 2022, Rune won a title in Stockholm, made a final in Basel a week later and then beat Djokovic in the final of this very event. It was a stunning run from a highly-talented player, and Rune has looked sharp since the end of September. He made the semifinals in Tokyo, beat Matteo Berrettini and Jiri Lehecka in Shanghai and then played well in Basel. That said, you shouldn’t be surprised if he gives anybody a run for their money here.

Karen Khachanov (50-1): Don’t look now, but it appears Khachanov’s got his groove back. The Russian has had a tough 2024 season, but he will head into 2025 with some momentum. Just a few weeks ago, Khachanov won a 250-level title in Almaty, and he followed it up with a run to the final in Vienna. In Vienna, Khachanov earned wins over Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini, two dangerous quick-court players, and he did so by putting on some of his best serving performances of the season. He then did the same in a straight-set win over Alex de Minaur.

Khachanov has done a really good job of extending rallies over the past few weeks, and his aggression is way up from where it was early in the year. He also happens to be in a pretty reasonable portion of the draw. After Pablo Carreno Busta, I like his chances against either Frances Tiafoe or Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the round of 32. After that, it’d presumably be Daniil Medvedev, but it's winnable with how the 28-year-old has looked in recent months. Considering all of that, a deep run isn’t out of the question for Khachanov, who won this event in 2018.

Rolex Paris Masters Pick To Win

Carlos Alcaraz (+210): Alcaraz might not offer a great payout, but his draw is just too good. The top seeds in his half of the bracket are Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov and Casper Ruud. Of those three, I probably fear Dimitrov the most in an indoor event. But I don’t think any of them can beat an in-form Alcaraz, and the Spaniard has played some great hard-court tennis over the last month or so.

Also, while Sinner could be favored over Alcaraz in a potential final, I’m not sure the Italian will get there. He has to deal with an absolute gauntlet in his portion of the draw. It also doesn’t hurt that Alcaraz has had a lot of success against Sinner on big stages this year.