Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Matteo Berrettini worth a flier at the US Open?

Heading into the 2024 US Open, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner sit atop the oddsboard at FanDuel Sportsbook. Given everything we have seen this season, it’s hard to fault the oddsmakers for that. Alcaraz has won each of the last two majors, and he is coming off a run to the final at the Paris Olympics. Alcaraz also happened to win the 2022 US Open. Meanwhile, Djokovic, the defending US Open champion, is coming off a gold medal run in Paris, making a statement that he is still one of the top players in the world. As for Sinner, the Italian is the world No. 1 and won the only hard-court major of the year in Melbourne.

Truth be told, the winner will probably be somebody from that elite trio. Those guys have dominated the men’s game over the last few years, as they are responsible for each of the last nine Grand Slam titles. However, it is pretty hard to find value in betting them before the tournament. Alcaraz is listed at +130 to win the event, which is tough to swallow considering his lack of recent success on quicker hard courts. Djokovic is just +185 despite the fact that he hasn’t performed at a high level at majors this year. And while +220 for Sinner might seem enticing, the Italian hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last few months. With all of that in mind, it’s probably best to look elsewhere. And the player I’m most interested in is Matteo Berrettini at +4700.

Berrettini is only 42nd in the rankings right now, so he could be burdened by a tough draw in New York. However, I’m not sure there are five players better than him in tennis. So, grabbing this type of number feels like the right call.

It might be crazy to say that Berrettini is a borderline Top 5 player, but the reality is that he’s as dangerous as anybody. Berrettini has been a semifinalist at both the US Open (2019) and Australian Open (2022), and he was also a runner-up at Wimbledon (2021). Berrettini has also been as high as sixth in the world. The problem with Berrettini is that he struggles to stay healthy. That has caused him to disappear at times over the last two seasons. But the Italian has looked as good as ever since returning earlier this year, which isn’t all that surprising considering he’s firmly in the prime of his career at 28 years old.

Berrettini’s 2021 season was previously his best on tour with a 42-13 record and two titles to go with his maiden major final appearance. Berrettini’s numbers in 2024 are actually a bit stronger. He’s 21-6 and has already won three titles, all on clay. Also, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have his Performance Rating at 7.61 this year, which is right there with his 7.85 in 2021. That’s a catch-all number that quantifies how a player is performing, and it’s telling the story of a player that is back to playing elite tennis. It also helps that Berrettini has earned convincing wins over players like Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas this year. He also went toe to toe with Sinner at Wimbledon, losing a four-set match in which three of the sets went to tiebreakers.

It’s just really hard to beat Berrettini when he’s firing on all cylinders. The Rome native has one of the best serves in tennis, as he generally hits his spots and can throw down the hammer. Berrettini also backs it up with one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour, making him one of the most effective quick-strike players in the sport. On top of that, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations actually give his backhand a higher quality score in 2024 than he had back in 2021, so he’s improving upon a shot that used to be a big weakness. All of that makes Berrettini a nightmare of a draw on a quick hard court, which is what these players will be competing on in Flushing Meadows.

I won’t sit here and tell you that it’s likely Berrettini will win the US Open. His odds are this favorable for a reason. But I think he has just as good of a chance as anybody outside of the Top 3, and that includes players like Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. And as long as the Italian makes a lengthy run, you should have the opportunity to hedge this and make a little money later in the tournament.

If you don’t want to go as far as taking Berrettini to win the tournament, I also wouldn’t mind waiting and jumping on him to win his quarter. That would allow you to see his draw to make sure he avoids some of the toughest players. And it’d only require him making the semis, as opposed to him winning.

Realistically, the reason I'm writing this is that Berrettini is a player that deserves your attention heading into the US Open. It won’t be long before we’re talking about him near the top of the men’s game again, so these prices won’t be out there for long.