Madrid Open Betting Preview: Borna Coric vs. Matteo Arnaldi

On Thursday, April 24, Borna Coric will face Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Coric is a former world No. 12 that has taken a tumble in the rankings—he’s currently No. 104 due to some bad luck in the injury department. But the 28-year-old has been stacking wins at the Challenger level in 2025. He’s 17-3 in Challenger matches this season, and he has won three titles, including one on clay.

Now, Coric is hoping that his recent run of form will translate to success on the ATP Tour. And while this is a big step up in competition, I like Coric’s chances against Arnaldi.

While Arnaldi has the game to thrive on clay, he’s just 4-7 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. He also hasn’t won a match on dirt this year. Of course, the Italian has only played two clay-court matches in 2025, so it almost feels unfair to say that. But one of those losses came against 38-year-old Richard Gasquet in Monte-Carlo. That’s the type of loss that really shouldn’t happen to a player of Arnaldi's caliber. Coric isn’t exactly facing the Italian at the peak of his powers.

I also like the way Coric matches up with Arnaldi. The Croatian can be very tough to break when he’s serving well, and he has been dominant with the ball on his racquet at the Challenger level. Whether that’s serving up aces or setting himself up for easy plus-one winners, Coric has been dialed in, and he’s overwhelming opponents. With this being a clay-court event at high altitude, his serve should be a weapon. And Arnaldi’s serve really isn’t anything to write home about, so Coric should have the edge in that battle.

Coric just needs to find a way to hold his own against Arnaldi in baseline exchanges, but I don’t see any reason he can’t. He has a well-rounded game, as he's capable of playing good defense while also mixing in some aggressiveness. That should serve him well against Arnaldi. The Italian is aggressive and has the ability to do pretty much everything on a tennis court, but he doesn’t exactly have that one weapon that scares opponents. He can also be guilty of losing his range when trying to go big from the forehand side. So, playing somebody like Coric could bring out the worst in him.

Realistically, this is a match that feels like a toss-up, but the odds say Arnaldi wins this match 59% of the time. That feels off considering the way the Italian has played in 2025, and it feels way off when factoring in Coric’s scorching-hot form.

Pick: Coric ML (+140)