Madrid Open Betting Preview: Joao Fonseca vs. Tommy Paul

We've already seen some great matches at the Mutua Madrid Open, but Saturday’s collision between Tommy Paul and Joao Fonseca is Avengers-level for the second round. Fonseca looked good in his first match on clay, and since Miami, beating talented youngster Elmer Moller 6-2, 6-3. He will look to build on that against Paul, who hasn’t played since he melted down against Jenson Brooksby in the Houston final.

Between Paul’s rust and Fonseca’s outrageous all-court firepower, the Brazilian is going to feel like this is a real opportunity to knock off one of the best players in the world. And even though Fonseca is the favorite in the match, I’m still laying the cash to win.

🖥️📱 Click here for live coverage on TennisChannel.com (estimated start time 3:10 p.m. ET, Saturday, April 26)

Paul won some matches in Houston in March, but he’s just 24-28 on clay for his career. The American has the game to win anywhere, but he’s much better on hard and grass courts than he is on dirt. Will he be comfortable on the surface, considering he hasn’t played in weeks? Fonseca, who grew up on clay, will be ready to go immediately.

The conditions also favor Fonseca quite a bit. The Brazilian has some things he needs to clean up, but he has a big serve and an even bigger forehand. Fonseca also has the ability to go backhand-to-backhand with Paul, even if it is his weaker side of the court. While Fonseca's forehand gets all the attention, he's quite strong on the backhand wing. And I think his two-hander will hold up well against Paul's, which is one of the best in the men's game.

Fonseca simply has the bigger weapons on the court in this match—and the altitude and bouncy courts should only make it harder for Paul, an elite baseline defender, to grind him down. Fonseca should also win over the crowd, which will give him a little extra adrenaline. That will only make him more difficult to deal with.

The only real concern I have here is that Paul is an elite returner, and Fonseca’s hold percentage (80.8%) isn’t close to where it’s should be when he really puts everything together. So, Paul will likely put some pressure on the Brazilian. But I trust Fonseca to find ways to deal with that pressure, and I also like his chances of pestering Paul when it’s the American’s turn to serve. Paul has improved a lot as a server over the years, but he only holds at 75.8% on clay.

This may look like a tough draw for Fonseca, but in other ways it feels like a good one. The 18-year-old has already proven he’s going to be a bigger factor on the ATP Tour than people expected this year.

Pick: Fonseca ML (-165)