Pick of the Day: Max Purcell vs. Tommy Paul, US Open

On Thursday, August 29, Tommy Paul will look to secure his spot in the third round of the 2024 US Open. Paul is coming off a four-set win over Lorenzo Sonego, a match he should have won in straights. The American thoroughly dominated the Italian, but he lost his focus a bit in the third set. Paul will now take on Max Purcell, who earned a 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 win over Aleksandar Vukic in the opening round. And while I do think Paul will end up winning this match, I like the Australian to get on the board with a set. And the price for that is right.

These two have never squared off, but Purcell can be a difficult challenger. He has a massive serve and he regularly hits his spots. He also has serve-and-volley mindset. Once he uses his serve to get you out of position, he’s coming to the net to finish the point off. Paul is very good at using his elite athleticism to get serves back. However, I think Purcell will have a little success in coming up and putting those returns away.

Paul isn't exactly playing lights-out tennis. Before beating Sonego, he had lost two straight, to Brandon Nakashima and Flavio Cobolli. Those are solid players, but Paul should beat both of them. And while I’d like to say that Paul’s third-set loss of focus against Sonego was nothing but a blip on the radar, the American does tend to play with his food a little. Purcell’s no-nonsense game will make Paul pay for any lapse in focus.

It’s also worth noting that these are the types of US Open matches that can be hard for Americans. There’s a lot of pressure that comes with playing in your home Slam, and it can be especially tough to play a match in which you are fully expected to win. If Paul comes to the court with any nerves, he’ll struggle to put Purcell away easily.

Pick: Purcell +2.5 Sets (-116)