Casper Ruud’s loss to Marcos Giron at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells seems to have left a poor taste in the mouths of many — including some oddsmakers. Despite the fact that Ruud is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, a former world No. 2 and a 2022 Miami Open finalist, he’s barely favored to beat Miomir Kecmanovic in their Round of 64 matchup in South Beach. Perhaps some of that has to do with Kecmanovic getting the better of Ruud in Rome last year. A win over Ruud on his favorite surface is definitely impressive. But Kecmanovic had lost three of his previous four matches before beating Aleksandar Kovacevic in the opening round here. So, while many will say Ruud is out of form coming into this match, I’m not sure you can say Kecmanovic is playing his best either. That said, I’m keeping things simple and taking a good price on the better player.
I mentioned it in my Miami Open tournament preview, but I don’t view Ruud as a lost cause on faster hard courts. As previously noted, the Norwegian made the final here in 2022, playing a very competitive match against Carlos Alcaraz once he got there. Ruud has also been very good at the year-end championships, which are played indoors in some of the quickest conditions we see all year.
The reality is that Ruud can be very difficult to beat in conditions like these. He just needs to hit his spots with his serve and hit his backhand well. The serve definitely didn’t look good in Indian Wells, as he made just 60.4% of his first serves against Giron. However, he had made at least 72.2% in five straight matches before that one. Indian Wells was also Ruud’s first tournament after having gotten a stomach bug in Acapulco. So, it’s entirely possible he still wasn’t feeling like himself.
If the last few weeks have allowed Ruud to get himself healthy and focused, he should be able to give Kecmanovic some issues. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Ruud’s numbers are extremely favorable in a few key aspects of the game when factoring in play in ATP 250s, 500s and 1000s. Over the last 52 weeks, Ruud’s serve quality is 7.92 and his return quality is 7.01. Kecmanovic’s serve quality is 7.72 and his return quality is 6.62. Ruud’s backhand quality is also a little higher than Kecmanovic’s, which is interesting considering that’s the Norwegian’s “weakness.” On top of all of that, Ruud’s numbers are a little better in attack, and he’s also a bit better when it comes to stealing points. There’s just very little that Kecmanovic does at a higher level than Ruud, outside of maybe flattening out his forehand.
Considering all of Ruud’s minor edges over Kecmanovic, plus the Norwegian’s overall track record in big tournaments, this feels like a great buy-low opportunity. Ruud even has the advantage of having not played a physical opening-round match, which is exactly what Kecmanovic did against Kovacevic. Kecmanovic is physically fit, so I’m not expecting him to fail to show up here. But if the slightest bit of fatigue drags him down even a little, Ruud should be able to take advantage of that. And for what it’s worth, Kecmanovic is coming off back-to-back losing seasons on the ATP Tour. He’s not a player that can be trusted to show up week in and week out. Ruud has his haters around the world, but this is a guy that won 51 matches for the second time in three seasons last year. You’re generally going to get better tennis from Ruud than you are from Kecmanovic. The proof is in the pudding.
Pick: Ruud ML (-137)