Miami Open Betting Preview: Emma Raducanu vs. Jessica Pegula

On Wednesday, March 26, we'll see two WTA quarterfinals at the Miami Open. One features Iga Swiatek taking on Alexandra Eala. The best moneyline price you can find on the Pole is -1613, so that's not exactly the most intriguing matchup. The other features Jessica Pegula facing a red-hot Emma Raducanu. The American is as high as a -225 moneyline favorite, which isn’t crazy for a meeting between the world No. 4 and the world No. 60. But Raducanu has won a major, and we have seen that her best tennis is Top 10 worthy.

Considering she’s playing some great tennis this tournament, I like her to give Pegula a match. That’s why I’m taking Raducanu to win a set.

If Raducanu got to this point by going through a bunch of nobodies, I probably would have liked Pegula to win somewhat easily. But the Brit grinded out a tough win over Emma Navarro in the second round, 7-6 (6), 2-6, 7-6 (3). She then beat the brakes off McCartney Kessler, who played college tennis at the University of Florida and loves these playing conditions. Then she did the same against Amanda Anisimova—who was fresh off a win over Mirra Andreeva, the hottest player in tennis.

Raducanu is serving better than she has all season, taking advantage of Miami's low bounces and faster courts. She’s also playing her usual brand of aggressive first-strike tennis—while overwhelming opponents by not racking up unforced errors. Raducanu is simply looking confident right now, and confidence is what she has been missing (along with good health).

If we see the same version of Raducanu that we have seen over the last few weeks, it’s hard to see a pathway for Pegula to win in straights. While Pegula is super strong from the baseline, her serve isn’t often consistent enough for her to just breeze through matches against talented opponents. Raducanu, unlike Marta Kostyuk, Pegula's last opponent, should be more reliable with the ball on her racquet. She should also do a good job of pushing Pegula around with her heavy groundstrokes.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pegula pulls this out. Raducanu hasn’t played a match this big in ages, and Pegula loves 1000-level events. But I still don't see Pegula winning in two. Raducanu has also played well against Pegula in the past. In 2022, the American earned a tight 7-5, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. Then, last year, Raducanu came away with a 4-6, 7-6 (6), 7-5 win over Pegula in Eastbourne. That Raducanu win came right before Pegula started to play some insane tennis towards the end of the summer. Raducanu was also nowhere near as good in 2024 as she looks right now.

PIck: Raducanu +1.5 Sets (-154)