Miami Open Betting Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Elina Svitolina

On Monday, Elina Svitolina will take on Iga Swiatek in the fourth round of the Miami Open. Svitolina is coming off an impressive win over Karolina Muchova. That followed a decisive victory over a red-hot Belinda Bencic in making the case that Svitolina might be playing the best of any WTA competior in South Beach heading into this contest.

Meanwhile, Swiatek has had some trouble in wins over Caroline Garcia and Elise Mertens, showing that she is once again looking vulnerable on a quicker hard court. With that in mind, I’m playing the Over on the 19.5-game total in this match. Even if Swiatek wins, I’d be surprised if she does it without at least one lengthy set. However, I wouldn’t be stunned if this is a three-set match, or if Svitolina wins a tight one.

The reality is that Swiatek has gone Over a 19.5-game total in all of the matches she has played here. She beat Garcia 6-2, 7-5 in the Round of 64, then earned a 7-6 (2), 6-1 win over Mertens. Well, Svitolina will be the most talented player she has played in Miami, by far. The Ukrainian has a complete game, and all of it has been on display to start this tournament.

Svitolina was an underdog in her match against Bencic, but she absolutely cruised in that one. She then fought hard in a win over Muchova, who probably felt she was on a collision course with Swiatek once again. Svitolina lost herself a bit in the second set of that match, but it was a positive performance overall. Now, the Ukrainian will look to try and take advantage of Swiatek in unfavorable conditions for the Pole.

Swiatek has proven to be human when playing in fast conditions. We have seen that at the Australian Open, and we have also seen that at Wimbledon. Swiatek is simply at her best when she’s able to lock things down, rely on her unbelievable baseline defense and force you to take low-percentage shots to try and blast the ball by her. And she does all of that while hitting heavy topspin forehands all over the court, as well as big, flat backhands. She’s also relentless as a returner, so there’s never really time to relax against her on a slower court. But all of that changes when Swiatek is capable of being rushed, which is why we have seen her struggle with average competition over the last few matches.

Considering the form both of these players carry into this match, I don’t see anything that suggests this will be a straightforward beatdown either way. But that’s exactly what an Under on 19.5 would mean. That said, I’m firing up the Over and will root for Svitolina to keep up her great all-around play. Swiatek is still the more likely player to win, which isn’t a bold statement considering the best moneyline price you’ll find on her is -425. So, it’s Svitolina that will likely be the one that needs to perform at a higher level for this to hit. But realistically, if one of the first two sets ends 7-5, or in a tiebreaker, we’ll be in great shape.

Pick: Over 19.5 Games (-125)