Miami Open Betting Preview: Jenson Brooksby vs. Roman Safiullin

We started off the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells with a Jenson Brooksby win, so why not hope our Miami Open Pick of the Day series can get off to a similar start?

On Thursday, March 20, the American will take on Roman Safiullin in Miami's Round of 128. Brooksby is once again using a protected ranking to play in a Masters 1000 event, and he’s hoping to quickly pick up some points and get his ranking up. The American is already in the Top 500 after last week’s event, and he can take another step in the right direction with a few wins in South Beach.

I’m guessing Brooksby feels pretty good about his opening-round opponent. Safiullin has been ranked as high as No. 36 in the world, and he undoubtedly has the ability to play some appealing tennis. The Russian is extremely powerful from the baseline, has a big backhand and he’s generally good about making opponents uncomfortable with his ability to push them around from the back of the court. However, Safiullin came unglued in the final set of his match against Lorenzo Musetti in the BNP Paribas Open Round of 64, suggesting his legs aren’t quite there right now.

That’s part of the reason to like Brooksby, as you need to be ready to fight when you face the American.

Brooksby doesn’t have a great serve, or ball-striking ability, so he’s not exactly the type of player you’d expect to win in Miami. However, some players are so good defensively that they can play their games anywhere. Just look at Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur. Brooksby isn’t quite as good as those guys, but his game is similarly translatable across most surfaces.

This just feels like a match in which Brooksby will consistently make Safiullin work for holds, and the American should be able to cash in with some breaks. And from the baseline, Brooksby’s ability to make opponents hit extra balls could bring out the worst in Safiullin. The Russian is extremely erratic and can fall apart at the drop of a hat. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a match in which he racks up a wild unforced error count.

If Safiullin was in great form coming into this one, I might have been tempted to lay off. But that’s just not the case. After losing to Musetti in Indian Wells, Safiullin won a pretty tight match against an out-of-form Chris Eubanks in the Phoenix Challenger. He then lost in straight sets against Colton Smith in the Round of 32. Safiullin is now just 1-6 at the ATP level since the start of the season, and he’s only 1-1 in Challengers. He hasn’t played well enough to suggest he can beat this version of Brooksby. While the American missed a lot of time serving his suspension, he already has more ATP wins than Safiullin in 2025. So, it’ll be hard to make the rust argument here.

Brooksby should also have some decent crowd support here. He certainly had it in Indian Wells, and most tennis fans in the United States would like to see him shrug off these last few years and find his place in the Top 50 again.

Pick: Brooksby ML (+110)