Miami Open Betting Preview: Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka

On Saturday, March 29, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will meet in Miami Open final. This is a matchup we’re used to seeing on American hard courts: Sabalenka beat Pegula in straight sets in Cincinnati last August, and she did it again at the US Open a month later.

Because of those results, Sabalenka enters this match as a big moneyline favorite. She's 6-2 against Pegula overall, with losses at the 2023 WTA Finals—in miserable conditions—and in their first-ever meeting in 2020 at Cincinnati. This series has been completely one-sided, and there’s no reason to think that will change here. That’s why Sabalenka -3.5 games feels like the right play.

In Pegula’s semifinal win over Alexandra Eala, the American was broken five times. That’s troubling for a player that has always left a little to be desired as a server. Pegula just doesn’t rack up holds the way you’d like to see for an elite player, and there were several instances on Thursday in which she was just rolling serves into the box.

That won’t fly against a player with Sabalenka’s power. This season, Sabalenka has a break percentage of 42.2%. That’s absurdly high, and it makes sense considering her ability to tee off from both wings. With that in mind, if Pegula doesn’t have a stellar serving day, this match could get out of hand.

Sabalenka’s serving hasn’t been completely flawless in Miami over the last two weeks. Her match against Qinwen Zheng turned into a bit of a breakfest. But everything stabilized against Jasmine Paolini in the semifinals. And even if Sabalenka does cough up some service games, she has shown a unique ability to get them right back.

It’s just hard to think about how this match is going to play out and find reasons to back Pegula. Pretty much everything she has to throw at the world No. 1 can be answered with bigger and better shots. And even if Pegula does manage to sneak a tightly-contested set, Sabalenka will have time to roll in one of the other two sets and cover this extremely manageable game spread.

Pick: Sabalenka -3.5 Games (-154)

NOTE: For those of you who tailed my play of Sabalenka to win the tournament at +350 on Tennis Bets Live, there’s no need to add a position on her. Instead, you might want to consider hedging a little with the best moneyline price you can find on Pegula.