Miami Open Betting Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

Looking at the Miami Open draw, it's hard not to feel like things aren't breaking Novak Djokovic's way. Several top players, including Carlos Alcaraz, have already been eliminated, so the 24-time Grand Slam champion must feel like this is a real opportunity for him to win another Masters 1000 event. But there are still strong players left, and one of them is Lorenzo Musetti. The Italian has given Djokovic some problems in the past, and the two of them will clash in the Round of 16. Well, considering Djokovic’s early struggles in South Beach, Musetti should be able to give him some trouble again. That said, I’m backing the Italian to win a set.

Djokovic does have a pair of straight-set wins in Miami, but his legs were a bit of an issue in both. After a 6-0 first set against Rinky Hijikata, the Australian was able to force a tiebreaker. Then, Djokovic won the first set 6-1 against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, went up a break in the second, but still got taken to a tiebreaker. Djokovic just hasn’t been able to sustain a high level of play for two or so hours, and that hasn’t tripped him up yet. But if he doesn’t fix that soon, it will come back to bite him against a stronger opponent. Musetti is a stronger opponent.

Musetti hasn’t played his best tennis on hard courts. He saves his best stuff for clay and grass. But the Italian has a good serve, a great set of wheels and the ability to hit every shot in the book. He’s also extremely confident in his ability, so he has to be feeling like this is his chance to snap a four-match losing streak against the 37-year-old (he is 1-7 overall). Musetti just needs to really make sure he focuses on his service games, as a couple of loose ones is all it takes to throw a match away against Djokovic. But if he does a decent job of navigating his service games, there’s a real shot he forces a decider—or wins this one outright.

In a recent practice, Djokovic told his coaches that he isn’t the same player unless he hits his spot with his first serve. The Serbian just isn’t feeling as dominant as he once was from the baseline, and that’s why you’re seeing him struggle to cruise to wins over players like Hijikata and Ugo Carabelli—and lose to a player like Botic van de Zandschulp in Indian Wells. Musetti is one of the best baseliners on the ATP Tour. Djokovic’s B- or C+ level won’t be enough for him to win this one in straights. So, I’m not overthinking this whatsoever. I’m taking Musetti to get on the scoreboard. I also think the moneyline is worth a sprinkle, though I will acknowledge that some of the scar tissue from past losses might cause a mental block if it’s close late.

Pick: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-120)