If you listened to our first Tennis Bets Live Miami Open show, you know I gave out Matteo Berrettini to win Quarter 2 at +750 odds. If you decided to join me on that play, you really shouldn’t be doing much of anything with his quarterfinal showdown with Taylor Fritz. If anything, you should be looking to hedge with Fritz at -175 or so. However, if you didn’t get any futures down on Berrettini, I’d simply look to play the Italian to win this match. This one feels like a genuine coin flip, making it hard to understand why he’s available at +158 odds.
While Fritz was one of the best players on the ATP Tour last year, he’s just 9-5 to start the 2025 season. He also doesn’t have many good wins to his name. The best one is probably a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Denis Shapovalov in the Round of 32 at this very tournament. Berrettini is only 9-6 in 2025, but he has wins over Novak Djokovic, Tallon Griekspoor, Gael Monfils and Alex de Minaur.