Miami Open Betting Preview: Reilly Opelka vs. Holger Rune

After a run to the final at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Holger Rune begins his Miami Open journey with a Round of 64 match against Reilly Opelka. It’s going to be interesting to see how Rune responds to his runner-up finish in the desert. In the past, players that have gone deep in Indian Wells have struggled in South Beach, and Rune is a player that has had some conditioning concerns throughout his career. However, there is more time between the tournaments than there used to be, and Rune did have an opening-round bye. Rest shouldn’t be an issue. And even if it is, fatigue shouldn’t prevent Rune from holding regularly against a poor returner like Opelka.

Read more: Holger Rune plots Miami move after Indian Wells final

So, considering Opelka has a missile of a serve, why not go Over the game total here?

Over the last 52 weeks, in the matches that Opelka has played with totals of 22.5 games, the Over has hit in 64% of them. Meanwhile, Rune has gone Over in 55% of his matches with that total.

Both of these players have the ability to cruise through service games. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Rune’s serve quality at 7.84 over the last 52 weeks. Opelka’s is all the way up at 9.12. Meanwhile, Rune’s return quality is down at 6.47, and Opelka’s is a miserable 5.55. Also, this season, Rune is holding at a 79.7% clip. And his break percentage, while improved, is still down at 21.3%. Opelka’s hold percentage is up at 90.1%, and his break percentage is a lousy 8.5%.

The reality is that this is a match between two players that are better servers than returners. Obviously, Opelka’s case is much more extreme, and the American’s baseline game is much, much worse than Rune’s. You don’t need me to tell you that Rune is a world-class baseliner, and Opelka is more of a self-described "serve bot."

But Rune’s advantages all over the court shouldn’t prevent this from being a match in which we potentially see a tiebreak or two.

If Opelka just maintains his focus throughout this match, he should be able to hit spots for aces, or set up some serve-plus-one opportunities. Rune could eventually break through for a break at some point along the way, but I'd be surprised if he regularly puts pressure on Opelka. Rune is getting better as a returner, but it’s still not a strength of his. And the conditions in Miami have been extremely server-friendly. Let’s hope for 7-6, 6-4 if this is a straight-set win, or let’s get ourselves a fun three-setter.

Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-141)