Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Mutua Madrid Open

One of the most exciting matches of the Mutua Madrid Open will take place on Wednesday, when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka is a two-time champion in Madrid, and she is already a two-time Grand Slam champion at the age of 25. But Sabalenka’s opponent in this match is ready to break through very soon, and I think this match has the potential to serve as Andreeva’s arrival.

Andreeva already has two Top 10 wins in her career, but those came against Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur. Both are excellent players, but Andreeva hasn’t yet defeated the sport’s very best. However, there’s no reason she can’t start doing it soon—and that’s especially true on clay. Andreeva’s biggest weakness right now is her serve, as she’s holding at only 67.2% in 2024. But the reality is that it’s hard for anybody to hold when it comes to the dirt. What’s really important on this surface is that you can do damage as a returner and win longer rallies. Andreeva is already one of the top players in the world when it comes to both.

This season, Andreeva has a 46.7% break percentage. She’s consistently putting pressure on her opponents, and I think that will get to Sabalenka. When Sabalenka is hitting her spots, her serve is incredibly hard to get back. But the Belarusian is still shakier than you’d think with the ball on her racquet, so she should give Andreeva opportunities to break. And once those start piling up, Sabalenka will only get tighter. With that in mind, this should be a match in which both players are on top of one another’s serve, making baseline play crucial.

Sabalenka obviously has a big edge in the power department against most players, and it was her strength that was overwhelming when she beat Andreeva 6-3, 6-1 in this very tournament last year. But Andreeva has grown a lot since that last meeting, and she has the game to frustrate Sabalenka. In fact, Andreeva plays a very similar style to Coco Gauff, who beat Sabalenka at the US Open and then gave her a serious run for her money at the Australian Open. Like Gauff, Andreeva plays world-class defense and has an absolute weapon of a backhand. But what I like about Andreeva, specifically in this matchup, is that she has done a lot of work on her forehand. And while she might not be able to consistently generate power, she will be able to redirect the pace coming from the other side.

All in all, I see Andreeva’s relentless defense being an issue for the version of Sabalenka we have seen in recent weeks. The teenager is going to force Sabalenka to hit a lot of extra shots, and that could mean a ton of unforced errors. Andreeva is already so good when it comes to point construction that it’s frightening. Once she puts on some muscle, she’s going to be a constant when talking about Grand Slam champions. That said, I view this as an opportunity to play Andreeva to win a set. But I also suggest sprinkling a little on the moneyline. She might need to fill out a little before she starts winning big tournaments on hard courts and grass courts, but she can make a splash on clay right now.

Pick: Andreeva +1.5 Sets (-140) & Andreeva ML (+175 - 0.5 units)