Monte Carlo Betting Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur double-bageled Grigor Dimitrov in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters quarterfinals, winning 6-0, 6-0 in a match that took only 44 minutes. It was a complete demolition, and one of the most dominant performances we’ve seen all year. I hit a nice future on that one, as I had de Minaur to win Quarter 2 at +650. That ticket was never in doubt, and it was nice to cash it without even breaking a sweat.

However, while I clearly like de Minaur’s clay-court ability, I can’t figure out why the Australian is favored over Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals.

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Musetti won the most recent match he played against de Minaur, defeating him on on grass last summer. He won that match 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 at a time when the Australian was absolutely scorching hot. And that wasn’t just a one-off win either—it showed that Musetti could hang with de Minaur in faster conditions that generally favor the Aussie.

De Minaur has consistently been a strong grass-court player throughout his career. Well, clay is Musetti’s favorite surface. That’s where he thrives.

The Italian currently ranks 11th on the ATP Tour in clay-court Elo rating, and his number (1901.6) is significantly higher than de Minaur’s (1845.5). And if you look at recent form, Musetti’s 11-6 record on clay over the last 52 weeks is a bit better than de Minaur’s 7-4 record. The Italian also owns a much higher hold percentage on the dirt—80.9% compared to de Minaur’s 76.1% over the last 365 days.

Of course, it’s worth noting that de Minaur now has the highest clay-court break percentage (37.4%) of anybody on tour over the last 52 weeks. That number is obviously inflated by Friday’s 6-0, 6-0 win, but it still shows how dangerous he’s been on return this week.

That said, I’ll take Musetti returning against the de Minaur serve over the other way around all day. I also think Musetti is a little more dangerous from the baseline. He has more life on his forehand, and his backhand is a weapon when he has time to set up and rip it.

The only thing I’m a little worried about is fatigue. Musetti has spent more time on court than de Minaur this week, and the Aussie is going to have a huge advantage in the rest department. But this is a best-of-three tournament, not a five-set grind, and I’m hoping that’ll give Musetti enough time to recover. If he’s even reasonably fresh, I think this is tremendous value on a guy that’s simply the better clay-court player.

Pick: Musetti ML (+125)