Monte-Carlo Betting Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz

If you watch our show, Tennis Bets Live, you should know I was on Carlos Alcaraz to win the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters at +175. I put 1.5 units down on Alcaraz, which would return 2.63 units—so I’m in a great position to hedge Sunday's final. I’ve gone ahead and added 0.63 units on Lorenzo Musetti at +350. That sets me up to win 2 units if Alcaraz lifts the trophy and 0.70 units if Musetti pulls off the upset.

If you tailed the Alcaraz future, this type of hedge makes a lot of sense. But if you’re entering the market fresh, the best approach is to lay 4.5 games with Alcaraz.

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Now, to be completely transparent, I don’t believe Alcaraz is definitively 4.5 games better than Musetti on clay—at least not in a vacuum.

The Spaniard has certainly looked better in Monte-Carlo than he has at any other point in 2025, but his level hasn’t been flawless. He’s had stretches of erratic serving and sprinkled in some poorly timed errors. What’s saved him has been his ability to raise his game in the biggest moments—the sign of a true champion.

That may sound at odds with the recommendation to lay the games, but this is more about fading Musetti than blindly backing Alcaraz to dominate. I’m a big fan of Musetti’s game, especially on clay, and I even had him beating Alex de Minaur in the semifinals. But this is a rough matchup for him. He did beat Alcaraz back in the 2022 Hamburg final, a tight three-setter, but it’s been all Alcaraz since.

The Spaniard has rattled off three straight wins over Musetti without dropping a set, and the seven sets they’ve played post-Hamburg haven’t even been competitive. Musetti has won three or fewer games in all of them, including a straight-sets drubbing at Roland Garros in 2023.

Even beyond the head-to-head, Musetti’s path to the final has been taxing. He’s dropped the first set 6-1 in three of his last four matches and has logged over 11.5 hours on court this week—roughly four hours more than Alcaraz. That’s a serious mileage gap, and it’s coming to a head just one day after battling de Minaur, one of the most relentless grinders on tour.

Musetti’s game is well-suited for clay, and in the right scenario, he has the tools to frustrate Alcaraz. But for that to happen, he’d need to be both in peak form and completely fresh—and at the moment, he’s neither. That’s why I’m comfortable laying the games with Alcaraz here.

Pick: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-114)