Monte-Carlo Betting Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the defending champion at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, and he has also won this event in three of the last four years. Now he's just one win away from booking a spot in another semifinal. His opponent will be Lorenzo Musetti, the highly talented Italian that has always been dangerous on clay. But this is a spot in which Tsitsipas should be feeling extremely confident—he’s also 5-0 against Musetti, and four of those victories came on clay.

So, even though this is a juiced moneyline price, I’m backing Tsitsipas to move to 6-0.

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Musetti has had a ton of success on clay in his career: he’s 58-36 on the dirt, and won one of his two ATP titles on this surface. Musetti is just a tremendous mover that can hit with heavy topspin, find some wicked angles and transition from defense to offense in a hurry. The problem is that Tsitsipas is a better server than Musetti, his forehand is a lot bigger, and he’s just incredibly comfortable finding ways to win matches in Monte-Carlo.

Tsitsipas can really struggle from the backhand wing, as he needs time to set up on the ball. And even when he has time, he’s often hitting heavy topspin shots just to try and reset rallies to eventually find opportunities to crunch his forehand. But on clay, Tsitsipas’ backhand is actually a bit of a weapon, as he gets good kick on it and can use it to set points up. From there, it’s either the forehand that will finish a point, or his ability to rush the net and put away volleys.

As far as this match goes, I see Tsitsipas working through his service games a little easier than Musetti, who still has some work to do in order to make his serve a serious weapon. I also like Tsitsipas to win most forehand-to-forehand exchanges. And Tsitsipas just has a better overall understanding of what it takes to win the types of on-court wars we see at Monte Carlo.

While I’m not the biggest advocate of using head-to-head history in a matchup, 5-0 is pretty tough to ignore. If these sets are close, Musetti could doubt himself a little in key moments.

Pick: Tsitsipas ML (-164)