Monte Carlo Betting Preview: Richard Gasquet vs. Daniel Altmaier

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After beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in Monte Carlo, Daniel Altmaier now finds himself as a big favorite over Richard Gasquet in the second round of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. However, there are a lot of reasons to like Gasquet to make this a match.

The 38-year-old is retiring after the French Open, but he’s still capable of producing some high-quality tennis. We saw that in his opening-round win over Matteo Arnaldi, and he also gave last week’s Bucharest champion, Flavio Cobolli, a match when they met there. With that in mind, I don’t quite understand the pricing here, so I’m getting some action on the retirement tour by taking Gasquet to win a set on Wednesday.

At this stage in his career, there’s always a chance Gasquet can turn in a stinker. That just comes with the territory of getting older. However, the Frenchman does benefit from having played his first-round match on Sunday, meaning he has had two days to recover for this one. That said, I’m not viewing fatigue as a factor here. Gasquet should be well-rested and ready to go, and that means he should be dangerous when his feet touch the red clay.

Gasquet has been tremendous in Monte-Carlo in his career. In 29 matches, he’s 20-9 and has made three quarterfinals and one semifinal. Of course, he achieved most of those things when he was a lot younger—his last quarter-final appearance came in 2018. But just playing 29 matches at a certain venue can do a lot for your confidence. And that’s especially true with Altmaier having only played his third main-draw match in this tournament on Monday.

Gasquet is also 2-1 in three career meetings with Altmaier, and all three matches were played on clay. Now, it should be noted that Altmaier won the most recent one, 7-5, 6-4 in Hamburg. But that match was played indoors, meaning far fewer elements to deal with. Well, dealing with unique conditions is a big part of winning on clay, so I like that Gasquet’s previous wins were a bit grittier. And I like that because it doesn’t get much grittier than Monte-Carlo.

I also just don’t trust Altmaier as a big favorite, nor do I trust him to handle the emotions of playing in front of a raucous crowd. He’s a player that has proven he can get tight throughout his career, and these fans are going to be going absolutely mad for Gasquet.

Perhaps Altmaier’s age and superior overall ability at this stage in his career will help him get across the finish line when all is said and done. But I don’t see it happening in straight sets, and I definitely think this is a spot in which it makes sense to take the set spread and also sprinkle a little something on the moneyline. Gasquet didn’t have high expectations heading into this week, but the draw is giving him one last chance to play some good tennis in a venue he loves—and one that loves him back.

Pick: Gasquet +1.5 Sets (-138)