Nitto ATP Finals Betting Preview: Sinner, Alcaraz and the best bets in Turin

The Nitto ATP Finals, played in Turin, Italy, will mark the end of the 2024 ATP season. Eight of the best players in the world are prepared to battle it out for the final big trophy, and paycheck, of the year. This year’s field features Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev. It’s a fun list of players, despite the fact that it doesn’t include Novak Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion is a little banged up and wants to make sure he’s healthy for the start of the 2025 season.

Regardless, this event is sure to be exciting, with Sinner and Alcaraz—who split this year's majors—in the mix. Not to mention Zverev, fresh off a title run at the Rolex Paris Masters, and who has been right in that top tier all year long.

The format of the event features two groups of four, and all of the players will play each member of their group once. The two players with the best records in each group will advance to the semifinals, where it then becomes a single-elimination tournament.

With all of that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the two groups. I’ll predict who I think will end up going to the semifinals, and dish out my favorite bet to win it all.

Quick Things To Know

• Djokovic has won this event two years in a row, and seven times in his career. Safe to say this year's competitors have a major opportunity.
• Sinner was the runner-up in the event last year, and he’ll be eager to finish the job in front of his home fans.
• Zverev has won this event more than anyone in the field, taking the title in 2018 and 2021. Medvedev is the only other previous champion in the field, as he won it back in 2020.
• The court conditions will be extremely fast. Tennis Abstract has the Surface Speed at 1.56, meaning players hit aces at a rate 56% higher than on a tour-average surface. You can expect the big servers to enjoy these conditions, and rallies will end rather quickly because of how easy it can be to hit winners.

Ilie Nastase Group

• Jannik Sinner (+130)
• Daniil Medvedev (10-1)
• Taylor Fritz (18-1)
• Alex De Minaur (23-1)

We haven’t seen Sinner in about a month, as he has dealt with some health issues since defeating Djokovic in the finals of the Rolex Shanghai Masters. Still, Sinner is 52-4 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, and playing indoors brings out an even higher level in him. Overall on this surface, Sinner’s 91.9% hold percentage is the highest on tour over the last 52 weeks, and he’s third in break percentage (28.2%) in that same span. That makes it pretty hard to believe he won’t make it out of group play, especially with this being played in Italy. He serves too well, he returns too well and he has unmatched power from the baseline.

As for the second spot in the group, I give a slight edge to Fritz over Medvedev. The American will face the Russian in the first match of group play, so we’ll find out pretty quickly whether or not that’s the right call. But Fritz’s serve is a little better than Medvedev’s—especially on a faster court. He’s also capable of taking advantage of the quick-strike conditions with his baseline play. Meanwhile, Medvedev has been out of form for months, and it’s going to be hard for him to find it without playing on slower courts.

John Newcombe Group

• Carlos Alcaraz (+215)
• Alexander Zverev (+700)
• Andrey Rublev (23-1)
• Casper Ruud (45-1)

It’s hard not to like Zverev’s chances of getting to the semifinals. He’s coming off a Masters 1000 win on indoor hard courts, and his 89.8% hold percentage makes it very difficult to beat him in quicker conditions. Zverev also knows what it takes to win the year-end finals, as he has done it before. He won’t be under the same type of pressure he is at a major, so we know for a fact he can handle it.

The other spot should go to Alcaraz. However, he didn’t look comfortable in the speeding conditions in Paris last week. Sure, Juan Carlos Ferrero went out and made sure Alcaraz got some practice in similar conditions after his loss to Ugo Humbert. But this surface has always given the Spaniard trouble, so it’s not a sure thing that he’ll find success in this tournament. Having said that, Alcaraz should be able to beat Rublev and Ruud anywhere, and the Norwegian in particular is coming in with no momentum.

Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+130): I like Sinner to emerge from his group, and he should pick up some momentum in doing so. That’ll allow him to find a nice little rhythm, which he needs after taking such a long time off. Once he gets rolling, I can’t imagine anybody getting the best of him. This is the best player in the world in conditions that suit him better than any others. He also happens to have the crowd behind him, which will be a bit of a change. Sinner is worth backing to win in Turin, even if the number isn’t all that favorable.