Pick of the Day: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Alexander Zverev, Rome

Alexander Zverev took a nasty spill early in the first set of his quarterfinal against Taylor Fritz at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, but he was able to shake it off and come through with a 6-4, 6-3 victory. It was one of the most impressive matches Zverev has put together in quite some time, with Fritz in great form heading into that match.

Now, Zverev will look to handle his business against Alejandro Tabilo, who has earned wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov and Zhizhen Zhang. And Tabilo hasn’t dropped a set during that gauntlet. But the reality is that this version of Zverev is one of the most unbeatable players in the world. So much so that I’d be surprised if he doesn’t win this in straight sets.

Tabilo is undoubtedly a very good clay-court player, and he leans towards being a specialist on this surface. But Tabilo is just 25-18 on clay at the ATP level, while Zverev is a career 136-53 on this surface. Also, while Tabilo is 11-7 on clay over the last 52 weeks, Zverev is 24-8 in that same span. So, it’s not like Tabilo is running into an all-court player that is slightly worse on the dirt. Zverev is a natural on clay, his favorite surface.

When breaking down the stylistic battle, it’s hard not to start with Zverev being the better server and returner. Over the last 52 weeks, Zverev’s hold percentage is 86.2% and his break percentage is 28.7% on clay. Tabilo’s hold percentage is 83.5% and his break percentage is 23.7% in that span. But over the course of their careers, Zverev has an even bigger edge in both categories. So, if the red-hot version of Tabilo doesn’t show up here, he’s going to get boat raced.

Zverev also happens to be playing some of the best tennis of his life from the baseline. Zverev has always had one of the top backhands on tour, and that two-hander has been a weapon over the last two weeks. But Zverev’s forehand, which is usually a weakness, has been tremendous in Rome. Zverev is getting a lot of shape on his forehand, hitting it with heavy topspin and getting it deep in the court. And he is also flattening it out and hitting his spots when going a bit bigger. If Zverev is that precise from the forehand wing, he’s borderline untouchable.

All in all, I’m just not sure what Tabilo will be able to do to legitimately make Zverev uncomfortable out there. Normally, attacking the forehand side would be the way in against Zverev, but that doesn’t seem like an option right now. So, I’m expecting this to be a pretty straightforward match—Zverev has the look of a player that could very well win his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros.

Pick: Zverev -1.5 Sets (-120)