Pick of the Day: Alex de Minaur vs. Taylor Fritz, ATP Finals

On Thursday, Taylor Fritz will look to book his spot in the Nitto ATP Finals semifinals against Alex de Minaur. Fritz was unable to defeat Jannik Sinner in his second match, but the American played some great tennis in a straight-set loss. If he can keep that level, there’s really on reason he shouldn’t be able to handle his business against de Minaur. After all, Fritz beat Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-3 in their round-robin opener, but the Russian earned a dominant 6-2, 6-4 win over de Minaur. It’s just pretty clear right now that De Minaur is a level below the rest of the playing field this week, which is why I’m laying 2.5 games with Fritz.

I’m not low on de Minaur’s game or anything. He is one of the most improved players on the ATP Tour, and a big 2025 season should be on deck. But he has struggled a bit since returning from the injury he suffered at Wimbledon. Sure, de Minaur is 11-6 in the 17 matches he has played since then, but he has made fewer than 60.0% of his serves in 11 of the 17 matches. That’s a mark he was reaching with a bit more regularity earlier in the year. Also, the eye test shows that de Minaur’s forehand lacks the pop it had when he was really hot to start 2024. That’s making it harder for him to finish points, rendering his world-class defending a little less effective. That's bad news considering his game is already a bad fit for quick indoor hard courts.

The reason the serve and forehand being down hurts is that Fritz possess both of those weapons. The American is one of the best servers on tour, and he should have very little trouble getting through his service games with Turin's court speeds. He also has weapons from both sides of the court, along with an ability to grind. Fritz is going to be able to hang with De Minaur in longer rallies, and the American is the one that is far more likely to finish them off.

Fritz is also a rock-solid returner, and it feels like he’s only getting better and better. The American uses his length to get his racquet on absolutely everything. That should serve him well against de Minaur. If the Australian doesn’t find a way to ratchet things up with his serve, Fritz is going to give himself a ton of opportunities to break.

I know the head-to-head history between these two shows it’s close—5-3, to de Minaur—but it’s hard to use that when looking at recent form. Honestly, Fritz looks like the fifth-best player in the world right now. He should be able to beat this version of de Minaur, and I like him to do it by a decent margin.

Pick: Fritz -2.5 Games (-125)