Pick of the Day: Amanda Anisimova vs. Jessica Pegula, Toronto

Jessica Pegula will look to win the National Bank Open for the second year in a row on Monday, Aug. 12. Last year, Pegula ended up winning the event in Montreal. This year, the 30-year-old will have to do so in Toronto. However, despite the change in venue, Pegula has looked just as sharp at this WTA 1000-level event, making it to the final without dropping a set. Her last match was especially impressive, as she earned a 6-4, 6-3 win over a red-hot Diana Shnaider.

I now love Pegula’s chances of adding to her trophy room, as I believe there are a lot of reasons to like her to beat Amanda Anisimova.

When looking at this match, it’s hard to ignore that Anisimova needed a medical timeout in her win over Emma Navarro in the semifinals. I know that Anisimova was eventually able to figure things out and get across the finish line, but how will her body hold up just a day later? This is a player that has struggled with injuries throughout her career. Meanwhile, Pegula looks like she hasn’t broken a sweat in this tournament, and she’s more than capable of playing at a high level for at least two hours. So, if this does turn into a physical match, Pegula will have a significant advantage.

Pegula also happens to be 2-0 against Anisimova in their brief head-to-head history. Of course, Anisimova is playing better tennis now than she was heading into the previous matches. After all, she has already knocked off Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya, Aryna Sabalenka and Navarro in this tournament alone. You don’t come through that gauntlet without playing at an extremely high level.

But Pegula does do some things that can really get to Anisimova, and her rally tolerance and ability to redirect pace are the biggest ones. Anisimova can play some breathtaking quick-strike tennis, but Pegula will have the advantage any time the rallies are extended. Pegula is also a good mover and will track down a lot of Anisimova’s balls to turn defense into offense.

It’s also worth noting that this will be Anisimova’s first final since January 2022. It’s also the biggest final she has played, by far. With that in mind, Anisimova will very likely be nervous when she steps on the court. Pegula has been around the block, so she should be able to take advantage of that. That said, I’m not over-thinking this. Pegula’s flat strokes make her a dangerous hard-court player, and I think we’re looking at two massive titles in a row for the American.

I’m taking her to cover the game spread. Perhaps we’ll soon dub her the “Queen of the North.”

Pick: Pegula -3.5 Games (-125)