Pick of the Day: Andrey Rublev vs. Jannik Sinner, Cincinnati

On Saturday, Aug. 17, we’ll get a rematch between Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner at the Cincinnati Open.

Just last week, Rublev came away with a surprising 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 win over the world No. 1 in Montreal. In that match, Sinner looked like he was battling a couple of things physically. The Italian was rubbing his hip in between games, and he was visibly limping on the court. Sinner was also just winded, which isn’t that surprising considering he had just gotten over an illness. Now that he has had some more time to get himself right, Sinner should be able to rebound—and I think he’ll prevail in straight sets.

Not only has Sinner had a week to work on his conditioning and focus on his body, but he also comes into this match after having not played anybody in the Round of 16. Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the tournament, meaning Sinner hasn’t played since his straight-set win over Alex Michelsen on Wednesday. That means that Sinner should be extremely fresh when he gets out there for the quarterfinals.

Meanwhile, Rublev went all the way to the final in Montreal, and he has played two physical opponents in Cincinnati. At some point, the Russian is going to start feeling that.

The conditions in Cincinnati also favor Sinner a bit more than Montreal. The courts in Canada usually play extremely fast, but it was playing a little slower last week. That made it harder on Sinner to just bully Rublev off the court. Well, Cincinnati tends to be one of the fastest tournaments of the entire season. So, I don’t see Rublev finding much success picking up the Sinner serve here. Sinner is also one of the best returners on the planet, so I like him to give himself chances to break against Rublev. The Russian tends to have some service games in which he flirts with disaster.

It’s also just really hard to get the best of an opponent twice in the span of a week, and this isn’t your typical opponent either. Sinner should be laser-focused as he tries to put that loss behind him, and the Italian also knows that he can use a big win or two before he heads to New York for the US Open.

Pick: Sinner To Win 2-0 (-125)