Pick of the Day: Andy Murray vs. Andrey Rublev, Indian Wells

On Friday, March 8, we’ll be treated to a high-profile meeting between Andy Murray and Andrey Rublev in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open. Murray is off to a great start in Indian Wells, earning a straight-set win over David Goffin in just over an hour. That performance should serve as a confidence booster for Murray, who has now quietly won three of his last five matches. Meanwhile, Rublev has had a controversial couple of weeks. The Russian was defaulted in the third set of a match against Alexander Bublik in the semifinals in Dubai, after berating an official after a call he didn’t like. Since then, he has since been dealing with the consequences of his actions.

Rublev might respond to these past few weeks by going out and playing lights-out tennis. But I tend to think it'll go the other way, with the distraction turning into something of a setback. That’s especially true entering this specific matchup. Rublev was unable to keep his cool in Dubai, so why should we believe he’ll be able to do it in the desert? Murray is one of the most beloved players in the history of the sport, so he’ll have some serious crowd support in this match. I think that’ll throw Rublev off a bit.

Murray’s playing style can also get to Rublev. The Russian plays a big game from the baseline, often going for quite a bit of power from both wings. But Murray, despite being 36 and having undergone major hip surgery, is still one of the better defenders in the sport. He’s going to run down every single ball and use his length and whatever amount of athleticism he has left to make Rublev play extra shots. There’s a real chance that causes Rublev to unravel; Daniil Medvedev gets the better of Rublev regularly by playing a similar style.

Murray is also capable of outperforming Rublev with the ball on his racquet. Murray is a little more inconsistent as a server than he used to, but he’s capable of overcoming that in big matches. Rublev is a very good player in a lot of different ways, but his serve isn’t one of his major strengths.

All in all, I don’t see any reason Murray can’t take a set off Rublev right now. This is the first time in a long time that Murray is heading into a big match in decent form. I firmly believe the Brit is catching Rublev at the right time, So, I’m firing up Murray +1.5 sets at plus-money odds. I’ll also personally be sprinkling a little timber on Murray to win outright.

Pick: Murray To Win A Set (+114)