Pick of the Day: Andy Murray vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Miami Open

On Friday, March 22, Andy Murray will look to snap a two-match losing streak against Tomas Martin Etcheverry when the two clash in the Round of 64 at the Miami Open. Murray is coming off a big win over Matteo Berrettini, who is starting to find his form again. The Scot has to feel like this is his best shot at going three rounds deep in a tournament for the first time since August—and it only helps that Etcheverry will be playing his first hard-court match since February  (and first match in over a month, in general).

With that in mind, I’m laying a little juice and backing the three-time Grand Slam champion to win.

Etcheverry’s overall firepower from the baseline has gotten to Murray in their last two meetings, but the Argentine went into those matches with match play under his belt. He was able to swing freely and felt good about coming out on top in most baseline exchanges. But it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Etcheverry goes out there after a month off and finds his best level right away. Rust has gotten the better of much better players than him, and Murray’s playing style won’t do him any favors.

Murray might not move quite like he used to, but he still fights to cover the court. He’s going to do his best to be a wall along the baseline, and that might be hard for Etcheverry to deal with. If the Argentine isn’t sharp from both wings, Murray will be able to extract some mistakes out of him. Etcheverry will also need to be prepared to serve at a high level here. Murray has been extremely accurate with his first serve lately; he made 78.6% of them against Berrettini. He’s in a nice rhythm with the ball on his racquet, so I like his chances of picking up some easy holds.

This is also a match in which it feels like the oddsmakers are begging you to take Etcheverry. He’s the higher-ranked player and has the head-to-head edge, but they’re offering him at plus-money odds. It feels like a trap that I’m not willing to fall for.

Pick: Murray ML (-150)