Pick of the Day: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Danielle Collins, Wimbledon

There’s a widespread misconception that Beatriz Haddad Maia is at her best on clay, but the Brazilian is just 39-30 on dirt in her WTA career. Meanwhile, she’s 21-10 on grass, and has won two titles on this surface since 2022. With that in mind, it feels like people are sleeping on Haddad Maia right now—including the oddsmakers. That’s why I’m taking her as a big underdog against Danielle Collins at Wimbledon.

I have enjoyed backing Collins this season, particularly when she played some magical tennis from Miami through Rome. But despite her propensity to go for broke with her shots, grass doesn’t suit Collins as much as other surfaces. She can be rushed when defending, and her serve can also be an issue. Though she won her first two matches in straight sets, the competition wasn’t great. Now, Collins is going to need to lock in and start making some serves, as she can’t rely on her world-class returning on the low-bouncing court. Collins has a ridiculous 40.9% break percentage in 2024, but these conditions are too favorable for the server.

Haddad Maia can also struggle to hold serve, but she takes advantage of these conditions. In her career, Haddad Maia has a hold percentage of 79.7% on grass—a stark difference from the 68.4% hold percentage she has in 2024 across all surfaces. If Haddad Maia can stay steady with the ball on her racquet, she’s going to have her chances to win this match.

Haddad Maia can match Collins when it comes to baseline aggression, but she’s a better defender, is a little smarter about point construction and is one of the best volleyers in the women’s game. Haddad Maia approaches the net a lot, which is a huge asset on grass.

All in all, this match is a little closer to a 50-50 than the odds suggest, and I honestly wouldn’t have been surprised if Haddad Maia was listed as a small favorite. So, I’m jumping on this opportunity to back the Brazilian at a very enticing number.

Pick: Haddad Maia To WIn (+155)