Pick of the Day: Brandon Nakashima vs. Andrey Rublev, Montreal

After upsetting Tommy Paul, Brandon Nakashima will now look to pull another surprise against Andrey Rublev at the National Bank Open in Montreal. Nakashima is now 12-6 in his last 18 matches, and he’s also up to 42-22 in 2024 across the ATP and Challenger levels. Meanwhile, Rublev is just 5-5 in his last 10 matches and looks extremely vulnerable. This is a good opportunity for Nakashima to put himself on the map.

I’m not quite confident enough to back him on the moneyline here, but I think he’ll at least force a decider.

The reason this matchup should be pretty kind to Nakashima is that Rublev has been off as a returner lately. This season, Rublev’s break percentage is down at 18.3%. Last year, Rublev’s break percentage was up at 24.7%. And the Russian’s break percentage has been at least 20.0% in each of his last seven seasons. He’s just not seeing the ball well right now. Nakashima should be able to work himself deep in sets, at the very least. The American is extremely reliable with the ball on his racquet, with his hold percentage up to 88.5%. And if he puts himself deep in enough sets, I trust him to break through and win one.

Nakashima is a very sturdy baseline player, and he comes with a straightforward approach: he’s going to look to hit his spots, and then look for opportunities to smash winners. Nakashima won’t let Rublev’s flashy style get to him, and the American will remain calm. That’s another thing that is hard to ignore when talking about Rublev, who has been insanely hot headed throughout his career, and has somehow gotten worse recently. The Russian could get frustrated with how easily Nakashima is holding.

It’s hard to argue that Nakashima is on Rublev’s level as a player. When the Russian is at his very best, he is fully capable of out-classing Nakashima. But Nakashima is in great form right now, and Rublev is nowhere near his top level. That should make for a competitive match, and it’s one that I honestly do believe the American can win. But to cash, he doesn't even have to.

Pick: Nakashima +1.5 Sets (-160)