On Friday, Daniil Medvedev will take on Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon semifinals. Last year, Alcaraz earned a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win over the Russian at the All England Club. He then went on to win the tournament, beating Novak Djokovic in an epic five-set final. Alcaraz has also won his last two matches against Medvedev, and neither one of them was close. So, it’s not crazy to see why Alcaraz is a big betting favorite here. However, I trust Medvedev to come out and play a good match here, much like he did in a five-set win over Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals. With that in mind, I’m taking Medvedev to cover a 5.5-game spread.
The No. 5 seed is the king of making adjustments. He’s never satisfied and that was on full display against Sinner. After having lost five straight matches against the Italian, Medvedev came out and changed his return position. He was also a bit more aggressive in baseline exchanges. Those adjustments ended up paying huge dividends. And I think he’ll have something up his sleeve against Alcaraz.
The last time these two played at a major, Medvedev emerged victorious in their 2023 US Open semifinal. During that match, Alcaraz’s serve was a little off, making it harder for him to serve-and-volley as effectively as he would have hoped. Medvedev was regularly passing him there, and I don’t think you can rule out the possibility of that happening again here. Alcaraz’s serve has been hit or miss in London thus far, and it was at its worst against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. The only issue was that Paul wasn’t capable of backing up those breaks with his own holds. Medvedev should be a little sharper in that regard. His serving numbers are a little disappointing this season, but he has always been pretty reliable with the ball on his racquet.
