Pick of the Day: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe, Wimbledon

Frances Tiafoe raised eyebrows at Wimbledon after declaring he's been losing to “clowns” recently. Tiafoe probably could have found a better way to articulate that he has been underperforming over the last two seasons. But he’s not wrong in noting that his level has dipped since producing a magical semifinal run at the US Open in 2022. Tiafoe knows that he’s going to need to play his best tennis in order to compete with his third-round opponent, as Carlos Alcaraz is no “clown”.

It was a teenage Alcaraz who ended Tiafoe's best major showing in New York with a five-set victory. The Spaniard went on to win that tournament, capturing his first Grand Slam title. He has added two more to his collection, including one at Roland Garros last month. As the defending champion here, Alcaraz is one of the favorites to go all the way. But I do like Tiafoe to play him somewhat close, so I’m taking him to cover a 7.5-game spread.

While Alcaraz has won his last two matches in straight sets, his opponents have had some openings. Alcaraz went to a tiebreaker in the first set of wins over both Mark Lajal and Aleksandar Vukic. Alcaraz also won one of the three sets against Lajal, 7-5. Well, Tiafoe is a more dangerous player than both of those guys. The American may not have the prototypical size, but he plays rather big. Tiafoe has the ability to rack up service holds pretty easily, plus he’s comfortable at the net. Those are skills that go a long way at this type of tournament and Tiafoe’s baseline game has been sharp early in this event.

If Tiafoe can just hold his own with the ball on his racquet, he should have no problem covering this big of a number. And I don’t think you can rule out the possibility of Tiafoe winning a set. For as much as Alcaraz has accomplished early in the 2024 season, his grass game isn't yet where it was in 2023. He has been a lot sloppier from the baseline, and his serve comes and goes. So, it’s only a matter of time before somebody gets on the scoreboard and puts some pressure on Alcaraz. Tiafoe has the ability to do that, and he also has the charisma to play up the crowd and get the fans in his corner.

Pick: Tiafoe +7.5 Games (-125)