Pick of the Day: Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev, ATP Finals

Casper Ruud’s win over Carlos Alcaraz at the Nitto ATP Finals was shocking. While Alcaraz is currently dealing with an illness, he was a -1700 moneyline favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. Alcaraz had also never lost to Ruud in his career, but the Spaniard didn’t have his best stuff on Monday. And Ruud also played at the highest level we have seen from the Norwegian in months. Now, it’s hard not to like Ruud to play another competitive match. This time, he’ll be facing a red-hot Alexander Zverev in John Newcombe Group action.

Instead of rolling with a side or a total in this one, I’m actually looking to the player prop market. I like Ruud to win Over 8.5 games at -125 odds in this one, which is something that he can do even in a straight-set loss.

It’s just hard to overlook how well Ruud served in his win over Alcaraz. He made 68.0% of his first serves in that match, and doing that will give him a shot against anyone — especially in these conditions. The fast indoor hard courts in Turin are very server-friendly, so hitting spots consistently will be rewarded. Alcaraz is also on another level as a returner when compared to Zverev. Over the last 52 weeks, the Spaniard’s 27.8% break percentage on hard courts is fourth amongst all ATP players. Zverev’s break percentage is down at 21.7% in that same span. Alcatraz also has the second-lowest Ace Rate Against (5.7%). Zverev is nowhere near the top of that list. That said, if Ruud can come close to replicating his serving performance, he should have no trouble racking up holds.

Ruud has also played Zverev well on hard courts before. In fact, the last time they met on hard courts, Ruud earned a 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 win over Zverev in Miami. Sure, that was back in 2022 and Zverev has gotten a lot better since then. But Ruud is also a much better player than he was in 2022. On top of that, Ruud won nine games in a straight-set loss against Zverev in Paris in 2021. That was a match played in very similar conditions to these.

I’m just not sure I see Zverev running through Ruud as easily as the odds suggest. And one thing I’m looking closely at is Ruud’s ability to pound shots from the forehand side. Ruud is going to look to go big across the court as often as possible to find Zverev’s shaky forehand. That should give him a good shot at controlling a lot of the points.

Things got ugly for Ruud in the weeks leading up to this event, and a loss to Benjamin Bonzi in Metz seemed like rock bottom for the Norwegian. But Ruud is a different player at the year-end event. In his career, he has a 5-3 record at the ATP FInals. Perhaps we’re counting out an elite player a little too soon.

Pick: Ruud Over 8.5 Games Won (-125)