Pick of the Day: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner, Miami Open

If you listen to our live shows or podcast on @TennisBets, you probably know that I suggested playing Daniil Medvedev to win the Miami Open at +650. With that in mind, I won’t be personally playing anything when the Russian takes on Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. But Medvedev potentially beating Sinner is something I believed in when playing the futures market, and I do like him to win at his current price.

Sinner is 20-1 since the start of 2024, and he already has Australian Open and Rotterdam titles under his belt. A real argument can be made that he’s the best player in tennis, and he did beat Medvedev in the final in Melbourne to claim his first Grand Slam title. But I don’t believe there’s as big of a gap as others when comparing the top tier of Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz to the second tier of Medvedev.

Medvedev also happened to have Sinner on the ropes when the two met in that final Down Under. The Russian stormed out to a two-set lead, playing some of the most aggressive tennis we’ve seen from him in over five years. Medvedev was really looking to end points early, and he was coming to the net more often than usual. That likely had a lot to do with the fact that Medvedev was exhausted from playing nothing but marathon matches all tournament. But now that he has seen the strategy worked—at least temporarily—I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again. Only this time, Medvedev won’t be running out of steam.

Medvedev hasn’t put the physical toll on his body that he did in Melbourne, which makes sense with Miami being a best-of-three tournament. That should be extremely helpful in this match. Medvedev will have the energy to play his brand of elite defensive tennis, if he opts to go into grind mode. But these low-bouncing courts will give him the opportunity to go on the attack if he wants. However Medvedev decides to approach this match, I trust him a little more than Sinner between the ears. Medvedev is one of the sport’s best thinkers, and he is great at making adjustments from match to match.

Medvedev also happens to be in better shape than anybody in the men’s game, so he’ll be able to outlast Sinner if the conditions are brutal. And it does look like it will be hot and humid.

Overall, Sinner might be a little better than Medvedev at this point, but the implied probability of the Italian winning at these odds is about 70%. I think it should be closer to 60%, so I’m playing the underdog and hoping for the best.

Pick: Medvedev ML (+180)