Pick of the Day: Denis Shapovalov vs. Frances Tiafoe, Roland Garros

There won’t be a shortage of firepower when Denis Shapovalov faces Frances Tiafoe at Roland Garros on Wednesday, May 29. Shapovalov is only 118th in the world right now, but that’s because the Canadian is working his way back from an injury. The 25-year-old has been ranked as high as 10th, and you’d be hard pressed to find 25 players that are more talented than him. That’s important to note for those that are looking at this match and trying to figure out how an unranked player is such a big favorite over Tiafoe, the world No. 26. And I actually think some of the prices out there on Shapovalov are quite favorable, which is why I’m playing the Canadian on the moneyline.

Shapovalov has had an up-and-down clay-court season thus far, but he’s 4-3 on the dirt since arriving in Madrid. Meanwhile, Tiafoe was just 1-4 on European clay before barely edging out Mattia Bellucci in his opener, 6-3, 3-6, 6-7 (6), 6-4, 6-4. So even though Shapovalov hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire with his play, he has still been a bit better than Tiafoe since arriving in Europe to play on clay. Also, the Bellucci match should open some eyes as to how troubling this matchup is for Tiafoe. The American struggled with a lefty that has a lot less power from the baseline than Shapovalov, along with a much worse serve.

Tiafoe’s difficulties serving this season were a big part of the reason I was on Bellucci to cover the game spread last round. The American’s hold percentage is down from 85.7% in 2023 to 80.3% in 2024. He has also seen his break percentage drop from 21.4% in 2023 to 18.6% in 2024. These small things add up and could come back to bite him against Shapovalov, who has the ability to really bomb his first serves.

On top of all of that, Shapovalov is 4-2 against Tiafoe in six career meetings. The Canadian also happens to have a winning record on clay throughout his career, while Tiafoe is just 33-38 on this surface. And most of Tiafoe’s success on the dirt has come in Texas, which is played on green clay. Those conditions aren’t at all similar to the ones we see in Europe, which is why Tiafoe’s play hasn’t carried over.

All in all, I’d just be very surprised if Shapovalov doesn’t find a way through here. He’s coming off a big straight-set win over Luca Van Assche, a very talented young Frenchman. That should give him the confidence he needs to get by Tiafoe, who could also be a little fatigued after playing nearly four hours last round.

Pick: Shapovalov ML (-170)