Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Andrey Rublev, Mutua Madrid Open

A Mutua Madrid Open final between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev isn’t what we were expecting. The draw looked like it was setting up nicely for Jannik Sinner to face Carlos Alcaraz in an epic final. But Sinner had to withdraw from the tournament with a hip injury, and Rublev upset a banged-up Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. But even though this isn’t the final we expected, we can still find a way to enjoy it, and I think Auger-Aliassime has the potential to make this a competitive match.

Rublev has looked like the best player in the field this week, as he got by Alcaraz and then beat up on Taylor Fritz. Rublev also earned straight-set wins over Facundo Bagnis, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Tallon Griekspoor in his first three matches in Madrid. Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime was remarkable in a win over Casper Ruud, one of the best clay-court players on tour. But the Canadian has also been super fortunate with his draw. His third-round opponent, Jakub Mensik, had to retire in the second set of their match. Auger-Aliassime didn’t have to play Sinner in the quarterfinals, and then had some more injury luck, with Jiri Lehecka retiring at 3-3 in the first-set of their semifinal matchup.

Auger-Aliassime has looked good in Madrid, but we really haven’t seen much of him.

Considering the runs to get here, Rublev is undoubtedly in better form, and he needs to be taken seriously. However, Rublev is also holding at 90.9% since the start of the 2024 season, which is 4.7% better than the career-high mark he posted in 2020. That number just feels unsustainable for a player that has never had much of a booming serve, and if Rublev does drop off a little with the ball in his racquet here, he could run into some problems against Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian is actually one of the best servers on tour, so he’ll win a lot of games by just handling his business on his serve. Auger-Aliassime also has big power from the forehand side, so he won’t hesitate to unleash on any second serves he sees from Rublev.

These two also had a serious battle when they met in Rotterdam earlier in the year, when Rublev earned a 3-6, 7-6 (6), 7-5 win over Auger-Aliassime. In each of their last five meetings, Auger-Aliassime would have covered a 3.5-game spread, so I just don’t see any reason to go away from that play now. Auger-Aliassime’s serve should be good enough to get this play home. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we look up and see Auger-Aliassime holding the trophy. He should have fresh legs after having not spent too much time on the court, and the conditions in Madrid suit him nicely.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime +3.5 Games (-125)