Pick of the Day: Jacob Fearnley vs. Nick Kyrgios, Australian Open

Say what you want about Nick Kyrgios, but his return to action is good for the sport. The Australian brings a lot of energy and drama to the ATP Tour, and with that comes some extra eyeballs. He’s like tennis’ CM Punk. Well, Kyrgios is set to face world No. 86 Jacob Fearnley in the first round of the Australian Open, and the fans in Melbourne are going to be dying to see their guy live.

The atmosphere for this match should be absolutely electric. However, Fearnley is going to be feeling pretty good about playing the role of spoiler. And at plus-money odds, it’s worth backing him.

Fearnley might not have as much big-match experience as Kyrgios, but we watched the 23-year-old go blow for blow with Novak Djokovic in the second round of Wimbledon last year. The Serb won that match 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 7-5 and it really felt like it could have gone either way. So, Fearnley knows what it takes to play at a high level on a big stage, and he also knows what it takes to win matches. Last year, Fearnley went 30-4 and won four titles at the ATP Challenger level, and three of those titles came on hard courts.

Of course, there’s a big difference between Challenger Tour tennis and ATP-level tennis. But winning is winning, and through no fault of his own, we haven’t seen Kyrgios win a singles match since October 2022.

Read more: Nick Kyrgios salutes Novak Djokovic after Brisbane doubles win

Kyrgios has just been so beaten up in recent years. Between lingering knee issues and a serious wrist surgery, there’s no telling whether or not we’ll ever seen the guy that made the Wimbledon final three summers ago. Add in that Kyrgios also had to pull out of an exhibition a few days ago with an abdominal issue, is going to be 100% here?

Kyrgios did play some solid tennis against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Brisbane, losing 7-6(2), 6-7(4), 7-6(3). However, that match was nothing but big serves and very quick points. Kyrgios’ legs and conditioning weren’t tested. Fearnley is going to test both. He’s a very good counter-puncher, so he’s going to re-direct Kyrgios’ pace and try to extend rallies as much as possible.

It just seems like a real leap of faith to believe that this version of Kyrgios can beat an emerging talent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyrgios finds his game and starts playing well later in the year, as I have always been a big fan of his talent and overall firepower. But expecting him to do it this early in the season seems unfair, and that’s especially true against a player like this. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Fearnley winning a set or two and Kyrgios failing to finish the match.

Pick: Fearnley ML (+112)