Mensik is now 11-7 this season at the tour level.

For a day featuring third-round action at the US Open, Saturday's slate is pretty thin. With that in mind, there’s no need to force anything on a high-profile matchup. Instead, focus on doing your homework and finding value. That’s exactly what I did, and I ultimately decided to put a little something on Jakub Mensik to upset Nuno Borges.

Mensik could be a little fatigued coming into this match. The 18-year-old doesn’t have much Grand Slam experience, and he’s coming off a grueling second-rounder: four hours and 18 minutes against Tristan Schoolkate on Thursday. But Mensik is young, and is body should be able to handle that type of activity.  He's also the more talented player, and he's being offered at a great price.

Borges has had one of the more impressive rises on the ATP Tour. Not much was expected of the Mississippi State product, but he’s up to No. 34 in the world and actually beat Rafael Nadal to claim his first ATP title at the Swedish Open a couple of months ago. Borges is a tricky player to face, as he takes the ball early and hits the ball deep in the court. The problem here is that Borges isn’t that reliable as a server, and he can occasionally get bullied by players that possess a lot of power.

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Mensik is one of the most aggressive baseline players on the planet, going for his shots from both wings. I can see a scenario in which he’s pushing Borges around, whether side to side or getting him off the baseline altogether. If it’s the latter, Borges will be in trouble. Mensik also has one of the best drop shots on the ATP Tour.

Mensik is also a little better with the ball on his racquet. The Czech’s hold percentage is 80.6% this season, higher than Borges’ 76.4%. But Mensik’s 85.1% hold percentage at the Challenger level speaks a little more to his potential as a server. He has serious pop, and if he’s hitting his spots, this match could get out of hand.

I’m not expecting this to be an easy win for Mensik, but I do think the oddsmakers are a little off in lining this one. His odds give him an implied probability of 38.46% to win this match. I think it’s much closer to 50%.

Pick: Mensik ML (+160)