Pick of the Day: Jannik Sinner meets Taylor Fritz for ATP Finals trophy

On Sunday, Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner will battle it out for the coveted year-end championship at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Sinner already defeated Fritz during group play, earning a 6-4, 6-4 win in the second of three round robin matches in Turin, Italy. That showdown marked their first since Sinner beat the American, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5, to win the US Open. That was played on Fritz’s turf, with the U.S. No. 1 having the full support of the crowd.

But here, in the Palasport Olimpico, Sinner has the crowd eating out of the palm of his hand. And that, combined with the perfect on-court playing conditions for Sinner, makes it hard to imagine Fritz spoiling the party. But how exactly do you bet on this match?

I’ll be completely honest, I put a small chunk of change on Fritz to win outright at +500. However, that’s only because I bet on Sinner to win the tournament before it started. Taking Fritz meant locking in a nice guaranteed profit.

If you’re looking for something to bet in this specific matchup, I’d suggest backing Sinner to win Over 12.5 games. Sinner is as high as a -800 favorite for a reason, given he hasn't dropped a set throughout the tournament. Yet, taking the Over on Sinner’s game total protects you from two different things.

The first is Fritz forcing a tiebreaker, which isn’t so far fetched. While we haven’t seen any tiebreakers between these two in their four-match history, it isn’t hard to imagine there being one. These are two of the top-10 servers on the ATP Tour, and these indoor hard courts make it pretty easy to envision a set in which both of these guys put their heads down and win all their service games. The second thing this bet protects you from is the match ending in three sets. Whether it’s Sinner or Fritz that wins, the Italian should win Over 12.5 games if this thing goes to a decider.

Ultimately, there isn’t as much intrigue heading into this final as you would have hoped. That’s what happens when you see an upset somewhere along the way, such as Casper Ruud contributing to Carlos Alcaraz's elimination with a surprising win in group play. And while Fritz’s win over Alexander Zverev wasn’t surprising—the American has won four straight in that matchup—the odds in this final would have been much closer if it was the German facing Sinner.

This is still a massive match, with incredibly high stakes. So, we wanted to make sure we gave you a little something when it comes to betting. But we wouldn’t blame anybody for sitting this one out and just enjoying it without any skin in the game.

Pick: Sinner Over 12.5 Games (-163)