Pick of the Day: Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev, Cincinnati

On Thursday, Aug. 15, world No. 4 Alexander Zverev will take on world No. 22 Karen Khachanov at the Cincinnati Open. Zverev has had a great 2024 season thus far, as he is 46-15 with two titles and a runner-up finish at Roland Garros. Meanwhile, Khachanov is having one of the worst years he has had since he was just a youngster on the ATP Tour. However, Zverev’s play has slipped a little in recent weeks, and Khachanov is coming off a dominant straight-set win over Francisco Cerundolo on Monday.

That said, I like the Russian to push Zverev in the Round of 32, which is why I’m jumping on Khachanov +1.5 sets.

For as good as Zverev has played this season, some of his recent performances are hard to explain. His loss to Arthur Fils in the Hamburg final was rather perplexing. He got beat up on by Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals of the Paris Olympics. Zverev also lost to Sebastian Korda in the quarterfinals in Montreal. The last one was the most alarming of the bunch. Zverev can occasionally struggle to hit his forehand, and that shot really fell apart against Korda. Several shots went right off the frame of his racquet, and he just didn’t have any confidence in swinging big from that side of the court. If he doesn’t figure that out fast, he’s going to struggle against Khachanov.

Khachanov is a player that can be tough to break on quicker courts, and the courts in Cincinnati are definitely fast. He should be able to work his way deep in sets by just putting his head down and hitting his spots. And if Khachanov does find himself in the business end of a set or two, I like his chances of stealing one. The Russian has serious all-court ability and he won’t hesitate to pick on Zverev’s forehand.

If this match was being played two months ago, I wouldn’t have even considered Khachanov. But the Russian tends to play his best tennis at this time of the year, and he might be coming off his best performance of the season. Khachanov was flawless in his 6-0, 6-3 win over Cerundolo, making the talented Argentinean look like an ATP Challenger-level player. That should give Khachanov the confidence he needs to come out and play with Zverev.

Khachanov has actually beaten Zverev twice in their head-to-head history, so he’s not going to be intimidated by this matchup.

Pick: Khachanov +1.5 Sets (-105)