Karen Khachanov has been one of the hottest players on the ATP Tour. Just a few weeks ago, the Russian won a 250-level event in Almaty. He then followed it up with a run to the final in Vienna, where he earned wins over Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini and Alex De Minaur. Khachanov isn’t slowing down either. At the Rolex Paris Masters, Khachanov has defeated Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov. The last win was especially impressive. Dimitrov wasn’t at full strength, but it was a quick straight-set win. Now, it’s a little hard not to like the idea of playing Khachanov to beat Ugo Humbert as an underdog.
Khachanov has just been tremendous as both a server and returner the last few weeks. The fact that three of the four sets he won against Mpetshi Perricard and Popyrin weren’t tiebreakers shows you how dialed in he is as a returner. Those are two of the very best servers that the ATP Tour has to offer. And both of those matches should serve Khachanov well as he takes on Humbert. The Frenchman is another lengthy player that serves bombs, but Khachanov has proven he can handle it. Can Humbert handle Khachanov’s serve right now? The Russian has been hitting his spots regularly, and has actually made at least 70% of his first serves in back-to-back matches.
Humbert has been playing at a high level as well. After all, he beat an in-form Carlos Alcaraz two matches ago, and he was able to handle Jordan Thompson in straight sets in the quarterfinals. Humbert has been enjoying the home-court advantage in Bercy, where the crowd has helped him find another gear. Not only is Humbert dialed in as a server — like he always is — but he’s also ripping winners off returns, and his baseline game has been tremendous. But I’m not sure Humbert’s play is sustainable. I do love the way the lefty is mixing up his shots and constructing points. However, he has also been ultra aggressive in hunting winners, and the misses are going to come eventually. Well, I can see that happening here. Khachanov has been playing very well defensively for weeks now. And I like the way Khachanov can use his sturdy down-the-line backhand to attack Humbert's backhand.
I’m not going to sit here and say this is some sort of high-confidence play. While Khachanov has been playing lights-out tennis lately, Humbert’s current level is definitely good enough to beat him. But Khachanov's +120 odds suggests Humbert has a 55% chance of winning. That doesn’t sit right with me. Khachanov's chances of winning this match are better than a coin flip. He should be slightly favored.
Pick: Khachanov To Win (+120)