Pick of the Day: Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek, Indian Wells

On Friday, March 15, Marta Kostyuk will take on world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Kostyuk has been one of the more intriguing players since the start of 2024. The Ukrainian has always had a lot of talent, but she finally appears to be putting it together. Kostyuk is 15-5 on the season, good for a career-high winning percentage of 75.0% She also went all the way to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, and she made a final in San Diego last week. With that in mind, Kostyuk should be feeling good about her game. And I think it’s hard to discount that heading into this meeting with Swiatek.

I don’t expect Kostyuk to go out and beat Swiatek. I’m not even comfortable backing her to win a set. But I do think Kostyuk has the ability to win seven games in this match. So, I like the Over on her 6.5-game player prop.

Kostyuk hasn’t dropped a set yet at Indian Wells, and her wins over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Anastasia Potapova were particularly impressive. Pavlyuchenkova has serious power from the baseline, and slower hard courts should fit her game nicely. But Kostyuk made easy work of her. She then beat up on a red-hot Potapova, who she was previously 0-2 against.

Of course, Swiatek is the best player in the women’s game right now. There might not be anybody close to her. But the Pole does occasionally throw away some games, and she isn’t as dominant on her serve as you’d think. That could be trouble against Kostyuk, who is a fearless ball striker. She’s going to take her chances in this match, playing quick-strike tennis until the end. That can lead to some very ugly stretches on the court, but it also gives her some upside. She doesn’t care who is on the other side of the court, she’s swinging big regardless. And that strike zone has to feel big with the way she’s playing right now. It also might feel even bigger considering she has nothing to lose in this match.

Kostyuk won exactly seven games in a 6-3, 6-4 loss to Swiatek at the 2021 French Open. That was before she really took her game to this new 2024 level, and it was on Swiatek’s preferred surface.

Pick: Kostyuk Over 6.5 Games Won (-118)