Matteo Arnaldi vs. Daniil Medvedev, Mutua Madrid Open

On Saturday, Daniil Medvedev will take on Matteo Arnaldi at the Mutua Madrid Open. Medvedev has a reputation as a player that absolutely hates the clay, and there’s no denying that he’s at his best on hard courts. But the world No. 4 is 9-4 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks, and he has spoken about being a little more comfortable on clay these days.

With that in mind, I think sportsbooks are offering a good price on Medvedev to beat Arnaldi in straight sets.

Medvedev and Arnaldi have met twice in their careers, with the Russian winning in straights in both matches. Of course, both of those matches were played on hard courts. But Arnaldi really didn’t challenge Medvedev in either one of them. And as long as Medvedev isn’t wildly off his game, it’s hard to see Arnaldi putting a big dent in the scoreboard. That’s especially true when you factor in that Madrid is the fastest clay-court event of the season. Medvedev shouldn’t have to alter his strategy too much.

When it comes to this match, the reality is that Arnaldi’s serve isn’t a big enough weapon. Since the start of the 2024 season, Arnaldi’s hold percentage is just 77.6%, and his career hold percentage on clay is down at 77.0%. Well, Medvedev is one of the top returners on the planet. So, he’s going to put consistent pressure on the Arnaldi serve, and he’ll eventually break through and get some breaks. It’ll be hard for Arnaldi to keep things close if he can’t put his head down and find ways to hold.

Arnaldi also lacks consistent punch from the baseline. He’s an all-court player that wins matches because he puts opponents in uncomfortable situations, and he doesn’t make many mistakes of his own. Arnaldi also happens to have a really good forehand. But Medvedev is going to be able to get a lot of balls back, as he’s one of the best defensive players to ever play this sport. That could cause Arnaldi to go for a bit more on his shots, leading to some unforced errors. Medvedev also does have the ability to do some things that really work on clay. He hits with topspin and serious depth when he wants to, and he can also flatten his shots out to go for winners. It's nice to have both in your arsenal.

Overall, this just isn’t a match that Medvedev should lose. So, I’m taking a shot on him to handle his business with ease, and I love doing it at plus-money odds.

Pick: Medvedev -1.5 Sets (+128)