Pick of the Day: Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune, Cincinnati

On Wednesday, Matteo Berrettini will take on Holger Rune at the Cincinnati Open. This will be an interesting clash of styles.

The 2021 Wimbledon finalist has a very straightforward approach. He is looking to easily put away his service games, while hoping his opponents give him a chance to break by tighening up. Even when looking at his baseline play, Berrettini slices his backhand until he is given an opportunity to drop the hammer from the forehand side. There’s very little improvisation. However, Rune is a player with a world of variety, and it feels like he doesn’t quite know the best way to win matches. That small difference in approach should give Berrettini an edge in this Masters 1000 tilt.

Berrettini is one of the best servers presently competing. In fact, his 92% hold percentage over the last 52 weeks is the highest in the men’s game. That’s pretty impressive considering he’s just above players like Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Ben Shelton. Berrettini absolutely blasts the ball, which allows him to rack up aces or calmly put away points with the serve-plus-one. That’s going to be a nightmare for Rune to deal with. The Dane’s break percentage is just 17.9% this season, which is the lowest mark he has had since becoming a full-time ATP Tour competitor.

If Rune can’t consistently put pressure on the Berrettini serve, it’s just hard to imagine him winning this match. Berrettini isn’t the best returner in the world, but he’s a bit better than Rune in that regard. And Rune is only holding at 82.4% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. With that in mind, Berrettini is the better server and returner here. On top of that, I’m not sure how much Rune’s variety will help him in these quicker conditions. Berrettini doesn’t want to play long points, so Rune isn't going to have many opportunities to take advantage of his versatility.

Rune is also just 2-8 in his last 10 matches against Top 10 opponents. It may sound strange to bring up this statistic given Berrettini's current No. 42 ranking. But Berrettini’s 2024 numbers are very much in line with the type of tennis he produced across 2021 and 2022, and he was up at No. 6 in the world in January of 2022. So, while this won’t be considered a match against a player inside the Top 10, Rune is very much facing that caliber of player. And he has not been able to produce good results against them.

Overall, Berrettini is just a better player between these two right now, and I think he benefits from this match taking place in Cincinnati. The Italian should be able to get the job done, and I look forward to seeing how he performs the rest of the way. Berrettini is one of my sleepers to win the 2024 US Open, so I’d be very interested in seeing a potential third-round meeting with Carlos Alcaraz. That would be quite the litmus test.

Pick: Berrettini To Win (-149)