Pick of the Day: Ons Jabeur vs. Zheng Qinwen, Doha

In our Qatar TotalEnergies Open preview, we noted that Ons Jabeur is a player to watch in Doha this week. The only issue is that Jabeur has to face Qinwen Zheng in the Round of 32.

An issue, but not an impediment to backing her. For the 30-year-old crushed McCartney Kessler in her opener, winning 6-2, 6-0 in just 57 minutes. She’s now 9-4 since the start of the season, and fresh off a run to the quarterfinals in Abu Dhabi.

Jabeur is in fantastic form at the moment. Meanwhile, Zheng hasn’t played a match since the Australian Open, where she lost in the second round. Form is favoring Jabeur in a big way here, making it worth backing Jabeur at plus-money odds.

Zheng is 2-0 against Jabeur, but it’s difficult to consider either encounter when handicapping this match. In 2022, Jabeur had to retire after losing the first set 6-1 when the two played in Toronto; then, in 2023, Zheng earned a 6-2, 6-4 win under a closed roof at the US Open. Those were ideal conditions for a power player like Zheng, as she didn’t have to battle the elements and was able to simply out-muscle Jabeur. She won’t be able to do that in Doha. This tournament plays extremely slow, and it can be very windy. Zheng isn’t going to be able to just pound the ball with flat strokes and cruise to a win. Adjustments will need to be made, and variety will be important. That’s why Jabeur is going to like her chances.

If Zheng isn’t able to win with her fastball, Jabeur will use her off-speed stuff to control points. The Tunisian is a master at hitting a slice that knifes through the court, and she also has every other shot in her bag. Jabeur won’t hesitate to change up shot angles, mix in drop shots or do anything else she needs to give herself the slightest advantage within each point. And she should already have a nice edge here, as Zheng hasn’t played in a couple of weeks. She’s going to be feeling things out early in this matchup, but Jabeur is going to be ready to go. That’ll be a change for Jabeur, who is normally a slow starter.

The only thing that can really hold Jabeur back is a poor serving day. However, as noted in the tournament preview, Jabeur’s making a higher percentage of first serves (60.7%) than she has at any point in her career. So, I’m not too worried about her falling apart as a server.

Jabeur also has a slightly higher peak Elo rating than Zheng, so her very best level is capable of topping her opponent’s A+ game. And the Jabeur we have seen over the last few weeks looks a heck of a lot like the Jabeur that made three Grand Slam finals from 2022 to 2023.

Pick: Jabeur ML (+130)