Pick of the Day: Paula Badosa vs. Emma Navarro, US Open

If you watch Tennis Bets Live, you might be sitting on a ticket for Paula Badosa to win the third quarter in the US Open. If that’s the case, you shouldn’t add anything to your position as she takes on Emma Navarro in the quarterfinals. If anything, you might want to take the American and hedge a little

However, if you don't have any futures tickets and just want to play one match on Tuesday, you might want to jump on Badosa as a small moneyline favorite.

These two met in Rome not too long ago, with Badosa earning a 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory. Navarro pounced on the Spaniard early in that one, but Badosa settled in and played a great match the rest of the way. Now on North American hard courts, Badosa has looked the best she has all year. She might be even better suited to beat Navarro right now.

One thing that really sticks out is Badosa’s hold percentage: it's up to 75.3% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. That’s significantly higher than Navarro’s 68.3% in that same span. And if Badosa is working a little less during her service games, that will allow her to focus a ton of energy on breaking Navarro’s serve. The American is a fantastic player, but she can occasionally struggle to get through her service games. I also didn’t think she served all that well against Coco Gauff last round, especially in the second and third sets. Gauff just didn’t find the court nearly enough to make her pay for it; Last year’s US Open champ had 60 unforced errors. Badosa won’t miss as many shots, so Navarro will have to do a lot more to win this match.

Speaking of the Gauff match, I also think Navarro is in a real letdown spot here. The 23-year-old could be drained after having faced the crowd favorite. Navarro does a really good job of keeping herself calm and focused, but she had to have been bottling some things up in that match. She was an American player competing at the US Open, but all the support for Gauff made Navarro seem like a villain.

All in all, I’d like to say that I think Navarro will win this match. But this is a pretty tough spot, and it feels like the oddsmakers aren’t pricing Badosa correctly. She’s looking a lot like the elite player she was in 2021. Badosa won a title in Washington D.C. a couple of weeks ago and has now won 14 of her last 16 matches.

Pick: Badosa ML (-125)