Pick of the Day: Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Australian Open Women's Final

Aryna Sabalenka exorcised some demons with her 7-6 (2), 6-4 win over Coco Gauff in the semifinals. The Belarusian blew a 5-2 lead in the first set, and it looked like she was on her way to collapsing like she did in the 2023 US Open final. But the 25-year-old was able to calm her nerves and find a way to get the opening set back. And she flashed nerves of steel in the second set, as she wasn’t broken once. Sabalenka should now be feeling like back-to-back Australian Open titles are there for the taking. And I ultimately do think the world No. 2 will prevail. However, Sabalenka is such a heavy favorite (-600) over Qinwen Zheng that it’s nearly impossible to find ways to bet on the Belarusian. That’s why I’m going to play something on Zheng instead.

I’m not sure Zheng has what it takes to win this match, as it feels like a big leap for her to go out and win her first Grand Slam this early. Zheng should win majors in the future, as she has a tremendous all-around game and a lethal combination of power and athleticism. But she has never been on a stage like this before, and it’s not like she has been dominant on her path to the final. Zheng played three three-set matches before getting here, which is wild considering Katie Boulter, the world No. 54, is the highest-ranked player she has faced. I think Zheng has had some trouble dealing with the pressure that comes with real expectations. Having said that, nobody is expecting Zheng to win here, so she should be able to come out and swing freely. Because of that, I like Zheng to win at least eight games in this match.

Sabalenka earned a 6-1, 6-4 win over Zheng at the 2023 US Open, with the two meeting in the quarterfinals. But that was Zheng’s first real taste of the later rounds of a major. She should be a little more prepared this time around, and I like that she has the power to really hit with Sabalenka from the baseline. Zheng is also a good server, so she should be able to do a good job of putting a dent in the scoreboard that way. On top of that, Sabalenka is always good for a few gifts with the ball on her racquet. She has come a very long way as a server, and she has been amazing in that regard to start 2024. But we saw her hand Gauff some games in the semifinals, and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t do it again here.

All in all, I like that this play can hit without Zheng having to win a set. If she can just win five games, or force a tiebreaker, she’ll have little work to do in the other set. But I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of her forcing a third. Sabalenka doesn’t seem to like doing things the easy way.

Pick: Zheng Over 7.5 Games (-125)