Dimitrov, who retired in the fourth round of Wimbledon this year with a groin injury, makes his return to competition in Montreal this week.

Grigor Dimitrov has already played a doubles match in Montreal, but this will be his first singles match since tearing his abductor at Wimbledon. The Bulgarian has spent a lot of time practicing to get himself ready for this, but it could take some time for him to settle in during a match, and find his pre-injury level. That’s why I like the idea of backing Rinky Hijikata to win a set in their second-round contest at the National Bank Open.

Dimitrov is 32-12 since the start of the 2024 season, giving him the highest winning percentage (72.7%) he has had since 2014. That’s why he's as high as -700 on the moneyline here. Dimitrov was playing some lights-out tennis before the injury, as he was serving at an elite level and he was consistently dictating play from the baseline. But I don’t think he’s going to be able to quickly turn it on after having spent about a month off the court. And that’s especially true with him having to transition from grass to hard courts.

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Hijkata also happens to be playing some good tennis lately. The Australian qualified for the main draw and earned a 6-1, 7-5 win over Taro Daniel in the first round. Hijikata is now 7-5 in his last 12 matches, and two of the losses were competitive three-setters against Sebastian Korda and Mackenzie McDonald. Another was a four-set match against Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon.

Hijikata is a very impressive ball striker, so the conditions in Montreal should bring out the best in him. He can punish the ball and make life very difficult on opponents to get it back in play. If Hijikata is serving well on Thursday, that won’t be any different for Dimitrov. And I love the fact that Hijikata has already played three singles matches at this venue. He’s going to be extremely comfortable when he goes out there, while Dimitrov will have to get his feet underneath him.

With all of that in mind, it just feels like it’s worth a shot playing Hijikata at plus-money odds to win a set. I know Dimitrov beat up on him pretty good in Brisbane earlier in the year, but Hijikata has grown since thenm and the Bulgarian isn’t exactly in form right now. We should see a much different outcome here.

Pick: Hijikata To Win A Set (+150)