Pick of the Day: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Sebastian Korda, Miami Open

Sebastian Korda put up a good fight in a loss to Daniil Medvedev in the round of 32 at Indian Wells. The American will now look to build on that performance at the Miami Open, where he’ll take on Roberto Bautista Agut in the round of 64. Bautista Agut has had a tremendous career, but he’s understandably losing steam at 35 years old. The Spaniard also had to go through qualifying, so fatigue should be a bit of a factor here. With that in mind, this feels like Korda’s match to lose.

Korda is a sizable moneyline favorite in this match, so backing him to win outright isn’t much of an option, unless you’re comfortable risking a lot more, or throwing him into parlays. But I like the plus-money odds on Korda to win this match in straight sets. Bautista Agut is fully capable of catching fire with his forehand, but we haven’t seen many throwback performances from him lately. The Spaniard is just 4-6 on the year, and he’s coming off a 2023 season in which he went 17-21.

If Korda just avoids making costly errors from the baseline, he should win this easily. The American’s serve still leaves a lot to be desired, and it really let him down in the loss to Medvedev. But the conditions in Indian Wells were absolutely brutal for the server. He should be a bit better off here, and his serve is still better than Bautista Agut’s. The Spaniard’s hold percentage is below 80.0% for the first time since 2021, and it’s the lowest it has been since 2012. Bautista Agut is putting himself in danger more often than not, and Korda should be able to take advantage of that.

Korda also has the ability to really pound the ball from both wings, and he can do it with low, flat shots. That makes him a tough matchup in Miami, where the balls bounce a bit lower. And Bautista Agut will have more trouble dealing with that than most players, as he’s no longer moving as well as he used to.

This just feels like a match that should be over relatively quickly. Maybe Bautista Agut hangs around early in both sets, but Korda should pull away and get this done.

Pick: Korda To Win 2-0 (+120)