Robin Montgomery vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Mutua Madrid Open

On Sunday, two-time Mutua Madrid Open champion Aryna Sabalenka takes on teenager Robin Montgomery. While this might seem like a match that should be straightforward for Sabalenka, I think she might have some trouble with the American. Montgomery is only 19 years old, but she has some serious game. She comes into this match on a good run of form, while Sabalenka has been a little shaky.

That said, I’m taking the Over on 18.5-game total here.

It’s just hard to ignore that Sabalenka can sometimes get in her own way. And she has been doing it quite a bit lately. In her loss to Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinals in Stuttgart, Sabalenka won the first set and then fell apart. She started to rack up unforced errors, and her serve really got away from her. That continued a little when she took on Magda Linette in her first match here. Sabalenka should have been able to beat Linette with ease, but it turned into a tight three-set match. And with Sabalenka not playing anywhere near her best level, Montgomery can push her.

Montgomery might not be on the radar as far as American tennis goes, but she’s an exciting young player. The lefty has crazy power from the baseline, and she’s going to try and rip winners here. So, if Sabalenka isn’t making her first serves, Montgomery will make her pay as a returner. Montgomery also won’t back down from the baseline. Of course, Sabalenka’s power can be overwhelming, but Montgomery will try to give it right back to her. Montgomery can also be quite dangerous with her serve, so it’s not crazy to see her picking up enough easy service games to win this match.

As long as Montgeromy doesn’t get completely overwhelmed, I just have a hard time seeing this match going Under. Sabalenka should gift her a few games, and that will likely be enough for this to turn into a lengthier match than expected.

Pick: Over 18.5 Games (-118)