Pick of the Day: Sebastian Korda vs. Alexander Zverev, Montreal

Sebastian Korda is coming off a title run in Washington D.C., but he’s not ready to roll over in Montreal. The American has really only had to play one match, as Vasek Pospisil retired early in their Round of 64 match. Korda then earned a straight-set win over Taylor Fritz on Saturday. After that, Casper Ruud withdrew from the tournament before Korda was set to face him for his second match of the day. So, Korda has undoubtedly benefited from quite a bit of draw luck here, but he played fantastic tennis in his win over Fritz and the two other matches should mean that the American will have his legs when he takes on Alexander Zverev on Sunday.

I’m not sure that will result in a win for Korda, but I do think he’ll take a set.

Korda has always had big time potential. You just don’t see many 6-foot-5 players with his ability to move around the court and strike the ball cleanly from both wings. HIs problem is that the consistency isn't there, which sometimes seems like it comes from a lack of confidence. But when Korda is running hot, he’s undeniably a Top 10 talent in the sport—and Korda is absolutely running hot right now.

Korda’s title in D.C. was the biggest of his young career, and his win over Fritz in Canada was one of the best individual wins he’s scored thus far. Fritz was 2-0 against Korda heading into that match. Fritz had also never dropped a set against Korda. That should tell you just how well Korda is playing right now.

Looking at this match, things won’t be easy for Korda. Zverev breezed his way through wins over Jordan Thompson and Holger Rune in his first two matches here. However, Zverev could be due for a dip in level somewhat soon. The German was pretty vocal about having not prepared for the upcoming hard-court season. He came from the Olympics and then dealt with a brief illness that kept him from practicing on this surface. That could ultimately harm him as he faces a player with Korda’s momentum. Sure, Thompson and Rune are good players, but neither one of them brought their best stuff to their matches against Zverev. Korda should be able to do so.

The question here will be whether or not Korda shows up as a server. For a big player with all the power in the world, Korda can occasionally struggle to hold. But it is worth noting that he has made at least 80% of his first serves in 10 of his last 16 full matches. It feels like he’s really starting to figure it out with the ball on his racquet, which is why he also had some good success in the run up to Wimbledon.

If Korda can make at least 70% of his first serves here, he should give himself a chance to win the match. He’s fully capable of holding his own against Zverev from the baseline, especially with the German’s forehand being a shot to target.

Overall, this might seem like a daunting match for Korda, but he’s quietly as hot as anyone on the planet. He has won 13 of his last 16 completed matches and that should give him the belief he needs against a player that still hasn’t been able to fully commit to the rest of the hard-court season.

Pick: Korda +1.5 Sets (-140)