Pick of the Day: Stan Wawrinka vs. Gael Monfils, Wimbledon

On Wednesday, July 3, Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils will look to turn back the clocks when they clash in the second round of Wimbledon. In the first round, Wawrinka earned a 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 win over local Charles Broom, while Monfils dispatched Adrian Mannarino in four sets, 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4. Now, the stage is set for a compelling battle, and it’s one in which I believe Wawrinka can hang around—and possibly even win.

Monfils comes into this match having won four of his last five matches, but it’s hard to be overly impressed with the way he has played in them. Overall, Monfils is just 17-15 in 2024, one of his worst starts to a season in the last 10 years. Part of that is that Monfils is making a lower percentage of his first serves, and he’s also become a lot less reliable in the return game. Both of those things feel pretty important when talking about a grass-court event.

But Wawrinka is just 4-9 since the start of 2024. Wimbledon is his first event since losing to Pavel Kotov in the second round of Roland Garros—a concern in one way, but a positive another: his should be extremely fresh right now. When Wawrinka is healthy, he’s still somebody you don’t want to see in a draw. The Swiss has never been much of a grass-court player, but he has the baseline power required to do damage at SW19.

All in all, this feels like a match that is going to be back and forth, with some lengthy sets and both players getting on the scoreboard. With that in mind, it makes a lot of sense to just grab the games. Wawrinka has a higher raw grass-court Elo rating than Monfils, and for my money, he’s still a more dangerous player. Monfils might have him beat in the athleticism department, but Wawrinka is one of the smartest players in the world. There’s a reason he likes to point to his head after big points.

Pick: Wawrinka +4.5 Games (-120)